trading again

Discussion in 'Journals' started by lundy, Jan 8, 2003.

  1. lundy


    After my big blowout, i'm back to trading.

    Working part time still, trading 4 days a week.

    Mostly maintaining swing trade positions, but averaging in and out alot at key points, to up my avg position entry.

    I'll be posting forex charts here, as thats what i'm trading now.

    I'm swing short the EUR/USD avg price is 1.041

    heres a daily chart, it broke the trendline and immediately dipped 40 pips.

    and heres a pic of my irrational exuberance
  2. lundy


    I'm also tracking the NDX still as it generally moves the similiar to the dollar.

    I think the NDX rally has more follow thru, with resistance at 1093 and 1117.7

    Although with the gap down this am, that my be difficult.

    heres a chart.

    the horizontal line at 1093 is a fibonacci line.

    the horizontal line at 1117.7 is a prior cluster of highs and closes. (resistance)

    the diagonal lines are psychotic trendlines (alan farley, )

    the above scenario of a rise doesn't seem to be playing out, this could mean it's time to jump ship on my euro position. I'm gonna hold the euro for a bit but it looks like the NDX will go down for now. I say for now because it's highly possible that we still hit new highs today, making it an engulfing candle.
  3. lundy


    I was backtesting some chart patterns today when I came across an important discovery.

    in 2000-2001, the US stock market changed in a big way. I don't mean that it just turned down, I mean that the patterns changed.

    This could be why many traders find it harder now. The patterns that used to work then, aren't working now. Not because the market is going down now and was going up then. Let me explain.

    Heres a sample chart from early 1999.

    Compare that with a sample chart from late 2000.

    now compare those 2 charts to a daily chart of today, which one is more similiar? the one from late 2000.

    It appears that the big change is that beginning in late 2000, prices were being determined around the clock, rather than just market hours in the US.

    If you haven't figured it out yet, it's in the gaps. The market started gapping like crazy since late 2000. This means that alot of chart patterns that worked before no longer work.

    And alot of patterns that work now may not work in the future.

    I don't think these price dermination changes occurr too often, and thats why I think theres alot of talk now of those who traded in the boom years, but failed in the bear market.

    Rather than their inability to trade being the result of the bear market, I say it was probably the fundamental shift in the way prices were being determined 24/7 that made it so these people couldn't adapt and find a new winnning strategy.

    long sentence, but hopefully you get the point.

    what should we look for next that might negate current working strategies and patterns?

    any comments on this theory would be appreciated.
  4. lundy


    story of my life, i go surfing this morning and whats left of my EURO position gets slammed up my arse. I should have taken all profits at 1.0360

    Current EUR quote is 1.0523/25

    Some Pimco report slammed the dollar.

    Anyhow, I'm still short, avg price is 1.044

    I'm looking to catch turn when the dollar resumes it's upward trend, i'll jump ship at 1.057

    kinda big stops, but i'm trying to catch longer trends, and still gettin used to the whipsaws the currencys can do. Man these things can move and move fast.
  5. catman


    You lost all that money and poured your heart out on another thread. You're now short in a position you had a chance to take profits, but you chose to go surfing.(and now you're under water)

    The story of your life will not change unless you decide to change.
  6. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    Why the hell would you short the Euro ?
  7. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    I mean, if you make it a habit of consistently fading strong worldwide trends, and adding to losers as the coup-de-grace ...
  8. lundy


    I short the EURO because the long term trend is down. Exactly like many people short the Nasdaq on every corrective rally, they know it's in a bear market.

    Look at a long term chart of the EUR, and you will see that it is in a simple downtrend. It has never ever made a higher high. Every year it just goes lower.

    Also, although the trade went against me, my overall reason for getting in has not changed. The new high yesterday was only by about 25 pips, didn't violate any of my trendlines.

    I still beleive the EUR is weak.

    As I speak it has fallen back to 1.046, and the Nasdaq market has continued it's daily uptrend after brief pull back yesterday.

    With the Nasdaq leading like that, I beleive the EUR is going to be in for a bloody day very soon. I have some Nasdaq pics that i will upload in a second.
  9. Um, how can you correlate a downtrend on a yearly basis and then zoom down microscopically to a couple days of nasdaq strength? Also, how can you pine about not covering at 1.036 if you really think the euro is still in a downtrend? You should at least be aiming for parity if that is truly your belief, otherwise it kinda sounds like you're reaching for reasons to stay in this trade.
  10. lundy


    yes, i'm reaching for parity, but my entry wasn't so good, so I should have covered more of my short, knowing that even if i get in near the top, there will be alot of whipsaws. And I can improve my entry by covering part of the position and shorting more near the high of the range.

    So, my long term outlook hasn't really changed or been invalidated, but i messed up on the short term trends which would be useful in making my avg position higher.

    Also, once it hits 1.025, i'll put in a break even stop.

    Once it hits 1.00 I'll take off half my profits and will not short any more even on bounces. Then I'll let the rest ride. Moving my stop to 1.035

    Thats my plan, see how i stick to it. And thats if it goes well.
    #10     Jan 9, 2003