Thanks Chris for this interesting discussion. (Gosh it's so annoying that I need to wade through these personal attacks to get to the real meaningful discussions.) I think you and your followers have a different, and perhaps quite opposite, approach to trading this market. I have no doubt that you can make money as well as many of the successful ones can. There is no "one" set way to trade. Whatever works! I just take the easy route for me. I don't spend time doing fundamental analysis (why? let other "analysts" do it). I don't follow news even on the stocks I trade. I don't take no tip. And - the major difference - I don't do any scans. Since I trade only the same 5 stocks, the fundamentals change very little from day to day. And fundamentals really have no immediate effect on the price. It's people's perception of how well the fundamentals look that affect prices. It's interesting that you brought up the subject of overnight gaps. I used to trade these "gappers" from the pre-markets. I found that my results varied. Sometimes the stock gaps-N-goes. Sometimes it gaps-N-craps. I couldn't quite get a good handle on it. But, with SPY/GS/AAPL/RIMM/SKF... they gap all the times. I have about 80% success in going-with or fading the gaps. It suits me well. I couldn't say the same if I were to trade a different gapping stock from one day to the next. High probability is what I like, and I am sure other successful traders would love that too. I agree that today it's SPY/GS/AAPL/RIMM/SKF, but tomorrow (I mean like next year) it could be some other hotties. I adjust my picks about once a quarter. Which doesn't take all that much time to research.
Yes, it is annoying to wade through the crap. Yes, I agree that there is more than one way to skin the market. Heck, we have six analysts in Tradesight (2 forex, 2 stock, 1 futures, plus me in all) and it's not like we all trade the same way. Rich Derrick on the stock side does primarily stocks and spends a lot of time on Demark reversals. Our futures guy is about reversals and indicators. I'm about trends. Etc. We can all be successful if we learn and stick to techniques that work. Trade management is really the key. I am a firm believer that entry is 80% of the trade, so I focus on entry points. There are 500 ways to manage a trade from that point, but having a high-probability trade from the entry is the most important. That's why we don't get wrapped up in returns. I do manage money, I have managed a lot of money, and I primarily trade my own money. But Tradesight isn't about doing anything except telling you what we think are key entry points and then educating you on ways to manage the trades. I can manage a trade many ways that are profitable, but I have my own preferred (on stocks, take half for $0.20 to $0.25, move stop to breakeven, continue to adjust stop). But it almost always the case that when I call a trade that works and I take a partial profit and later stop out of the second half in the money because I moved my stop, I'll get people in the room later saying "Thanks, it's still working for me," because they chose to manage it differently (I hope they were doing something with their stop, because we don't encourage trading without). I could care less what they do or whether they do better or worse than me. We should all be making money with high probability entry points and good trade management decisions. If I wanted to manage funds, I'd just submit my own account for audit, sell the return, and go forward. That's one model. Not the only way to get involved in the community of teaching people about trading though. And I'm with you on the fundamentals. I don't have a TV in my room and I don't keep a news feed beyond people in my Lab telling me stuff. I just trade charts. News is a distraction. Thanks for the conversation, good stuff.
I am leaving ET you will be free to kill who you can I guess that's life guys like you strip who they can we live in a sad world
Not that I'll miss you, but if you were a real trader, you would have taken up the challenge and come into our room for a week and showed us your stuff. Instead, you are "leaving ET." Whatever will we do without your complete and total negativity and lack of usefulness. Shocking.
Haven't we heard that before? It's not like "Apak the Sycophant" was your first incarnation among many of your miscreant identities. I should also point out in passing that, judging by your posts elsewhere, I think you would be better served if you invest half the time you spend on venting your crap on actually learning how to trade. In the end, nobody gives a bigger fuck than you if you go broke. Now quit bitching so much and mind you own damn business.
Wow, it's quiet without apak. Link from this morning's first hour in the Trading Lab: http://www.tradesight.com/presentations/tradesightwebcast20081119/index.htm By the way, today's action was a significant trend termination candle, and we have not seen November options unravelling. Hope for a gap down in the morning, and we should head higher by the close.
Hope everyone had a nice Holiday. We're back to work Monday with picks that include RMBS > 10.45 and SNDA < 20.85.
Just an update on these two calls that I made for today and how we trade at Tradesight. Market direction has been down from the open, and the short idea (SNDA) triggered very cleanly under 20.85. I take partial profits for $0.20 to $0.25 and let the rest ride. It's currently at $19.85, up $1. I've got my stop over $20 at this point to lock in a nice gain at a minimum. RMBS triggered long without market support, which means taking the trade for less size. It also went enough for a partial, and I have my stop under the $10.45 entry level, so even if it fails here in a miserably downward market, it's a winning trade. Good trading to all!
Strong day in the market Monday, and the market appears to be shrugging off some earnings warnings, which is a bullish sign. Hope for a gap down in the morning, and then some of our longs include: BIIB > 48.99 YHOO > 12.50 NTAP > 14.39 Also, major trendline break in the US Dollar for forex traders.