Trades for Tuesday

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Walther, Mar 10, 2003.

  1. Give credit where credit is due.. just look at a 5-min chart and 1:50 definitely looks like a maxima. i.e. short at 1:50 with 1.5 pt stop and you would have made money.

    Also, I wouldn't knock a system for not predicting a direction, especially if it's just supposed to be some kind of confirmation signal. If you trade candle patterns (I don't) then you know a doji is not bearish or bullish, just a possible reversal.

    Given that, here's my problem with Walter's signal(s). Look at his times: 9:45, 13:50, 10:25. etc. They are also pretty close to a minima or maxima at those times yesterday. In fact, pick any day of the month and one or several of those times looks pretty good.. so my question to Walter is this: how is this better than random for me? I mean, how will this help my trading?

    The second problem I have is with the phrase "see if you have a tradeable setup at XXX." If my own system has a setup at that time, WHAT GOOD IS YOUR SIGNAL DOING ME? I already have a trade at that time!
     
    #51     Mar 11, 2003
  2. Only as a confirmation.
    If you have your own setup and trigger in place already and do not need additional confirmation then you have no need for it.
    When you look at today's times I have posted and your signals are overlapping with them ,then again no need for it.
    Thanks for an interest
    Walter
     
    #52     Mar 11, 2003
  3. The 13:50 call was indeed impressive. All three major indices began their decline to the lows of the day within minutes of that time. And I see that you did post the call here at 13:40, a full 10 minutes before the break happened. I will certainly watch for a major directional move tomorrow at 11:25.
     
    #53     Mar 11, 2003
  4. range

    range

    13:50 was a great call. there is value in an approach even if it only serves as a heads-up.
     
    #54     Mar 11, 2003
  5. white17

    white17

    At risk of stating the obvious here, I'll do it anyway. It is well known that there is "almost always" a low at 10:00 and again at circa 14:40. A good deal of very basic futures literature mentions it and it's easy to see. Whatever Walther is doing I hope it works for him.
     
    #55     Mar 11, 2003
  6. Come on people!

    If i posted four times during the 6 1/2 hours that the markets are open, what are the chances that one of them would be close to, but not necessarily exact on a turn in the markets? Pretty good I think. Especially when you don't give direction, and are looking at only one day. Note he didn't specify that the times would correspond to a high or low for the day.

    Probably the same principle that fortune tellers use when they put out several common names. Chances are pretty good that some distant acquaintance has a similar name.
     
    #56     Mar 11, 2003
  7. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    You ought to pick up a copy of Taleb's Fooled by Randomness.

    --Db
     
    #57     Mar 11, 2003
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    #58     Mar 12, 2003
  9. I'm familiar with the book, but I believe the benefit of the doubt is at least in order at this early stage. It would be one thing to have named 10 different times for yesterday. But to name two times and one of them was EXACT when the market began a major break is certainly worth of the benefit of the doubt. I'm certainly no believer, and it may in the end amount to nothing more than stupendous luck, but as I said I'll be watching today around 11:25 for any major break or movement. If so, I would say there is more than randomness to the calls.
     
    #59     Mar 12, 2003

  10. Didn't he name four times?
     
    #60     Mar 12, 2003