target hit, will post comments and chart later. Typically, the day after trend days are good for this method
This is a perfect example of all or nothing. The trade before this where 10367 was the target would still have worked. The stop was 2 points below the low of the day being that it was so close to the swing low stop. So the previous trade would still be intact. Price has just hit 10367 and dropped. charts later will show this
trying to find time to post charts and comments. will do so at some point today. the wife has me doing things. doesn't she know I'm making millions !? yeah right.
Hi tradersaavy, Were both your Longs via the same trade signal? If so...why did the first Long have a target of 10367 and the second Long only have a target of 10361 especially if the price action of the first trade was as you call it... Still intact ??? That first Long entry @ 10352 with a target of 10367 would have resulted in a +15 point gain. However, YM dropped down to 10328 prior to your second Long. Are you saying your trading plan is designed in a way that you could have been still in that trade at 10328 for a -24 points just to get that +15 point fixed profit target ??? Further, something you need to think carefully about and research...if you should adjust your fixed profit targets if the second entry (same position type) occurs within what I often call the residual price action of the prior trade signal. A prior trade you feel for whatever reason that you should still be in. Thus, via your two Long examples...your profit target for your second Long could have remainded @ 10367 for a +21.00 profit-target. Also, when did you see that Short signal that formed between your two Longs (I am assuming it was a bearish divergence signal based upon your indicator)... When you coverd 1/2 of that Long or when your remainders was stopped out for a small loss ??? What does your trading plan require you to do if your in a trade and an opposite trade signal appears for you ??? In addition, what are your stops based upon ??? Looks like they may be based on the intraday high or low that has occurred for the trading day. However, if you get a Long signal (which you did) and the low is -24 points away... I don't think your going to sit there and let it drop in thinking it will rebound and allow you to reach your +15 point target especially if you just got a bearish signal... Psychologically that's one of the toughest types of trades to manage. Yet, if they are based upon the most recent swing high or swing low... Technically, after you Long @ 10352 The most recent swing low was 10332 about 1126am - 1127am est Thus, you wouldn't have reached that +15 point target because you would have been stopped out for a loss most likely around 10330 (if you place your stops a few ticks below that recent swing low). Your second Long looks great...I saw some good traders take Long positions in that price area and make some nice profits. Last question about today's trades... In your first trade...that Short position... You commented that you coverd 1/2 lot because the stop was twice the normal size. That tells me you have a specific number in your head to trigger taking partials based on your initial stop/loss placement. (Intraday high for YM at that time was 10412 or -22 points away) With that said and thinking about your first Long position... In your first Short position...did you adjust your intial stop into a trailing stop just slightly above your Short entry after you took partials??? My point is that it sounds like you were following what ever plan you had for that Short position and you stuck to the same plan in that Long position. Later you commented via hindsight review that your first Long could have worked (10367 target). If that's the case...that means your first Short position wasn't by the plan also. The difference between us may be how we view what is a swing high or swing low which in my opinion can be different from the intraday low or intraday high... All depending upon the chart interval being used for swing highs and swing lows. For the record...I didn't say anything about taking partials It did commented about when to move an initial stop/loss into a trailing stop (breakeven or a few ticks better than breakeven). However, I do know you know that I do take partials on most occasions. Yet, you may not be aware that I exit all at once on some occasions when a plan B gets trigger or if the strategy is specifically designed for such. Overall so far...good trading and it can only get better as you iron out some details in your trading plan. Hopefully others will chime in to give their perspective. NihabaAshi
Hello NihabaAshi. Thanks again for the comments. Today was a very good day, for this system. 5 possible trades and 5 winners. "Were both your Longs via the same trade signal?" No, see chart. "Are you saying your trading plan is designed in a way that you could have been still in that trade at 10328 for a -24 points just to get that +15 point fixed profit target ??? " Yes. There were some larger than normal stops today. The first trade was so large that I only used 1/2 normal size and looked to add if I saw selling and could get a better price. (but this is when esignal went down) The average stop size is 15 points for this system. There will be some 20 pointers and some 10 pointers. I do not look at covering stops on every trade. I look at the system working itself out over a weekly/monthly basis. The stops are covered at the end of the week/month with more winners than losers and a 1:1 risk reward ratio over time. A typical month will have the lowest win percentage (so far) of 63%. So with 1:1 this is profitable. It's not the best in the world but it's all I know for now. "when did you see that Short signal that formed between your two Longs (I am assuming it was a bearish divergence signal based upon your indicator)... " yes I did see a bearish divergence in my indicator during the trade that I got out of early.Trade 2. It was just a normal divergence. Not a divergence inside a divergence so I should have stayed in. I did not follow my rules during this trade. Poor discipline. I think yesterdays uptrend day still had me shaken. "What does your trading plan require you to do if your in a trade and an opposite trade signal appears for you ???" Get out. This does not happen too often because a divergence inside a divergence takes a while to form and most likely a profit target will be reached during the formation. "In addition, what are your stops based upon ???" Prior swing high/low. See attached chart. "In your first trade...that Short position...You commented that you coverd 1/2 lot because the stop was twice the normal size." What I did was only enter the trade with 1/2 normal size. At this time there is no trailing stop or plan to take partials . I did it today but shouldn't have because I have not researched this enough yet. The plan is still all or nothing. Target, stop or reverse signal. As I mentioned before, I am going to research trailing stops and taking partials. My set ups often occur at the beginning of some large moves and to capture more of these moves would be nice. "Overall so far...good trading and it can only get better as you iron out some details in your trading plan." Thank you. I do believe that it can only get better.