Murray, Thank you for your kind words. The statement you refering to reads; "It's how the markets differ from these ideal cycles where the messages come from." In my judgement, this is the basis of cyclical analysis. Idealized cycle patterns are equal in time from low to low and have crest, the highest level, at the midpoint of the cycle (sine wave). When the cycle deviates from the ideal, it implies there are forces that are distorting the ideal cycle. This is usually a longer- more diminant- cycle. This is the prime identifier of trend and is the essence of how all chart patterns are formed. For example, look at the last several days in the S&P 500 hourly chart. Notice that there are clear 12 hour cycles. Each cycle had a higher high and higher low, deviating from ideal and implying the daily cycle uptrend was still intact. This morning we come in with the present cycle 8 hours old and it has still not made a higher high. If it does not make a higher high in the next couple of hours, the implication will that the daily cycle is topping and and beginning to exhibit downside pressure (Daily cycles are 12-17 days and this rally is 12 days old). Notice how the relationship of these two cycles, the hourly and the daily will form the top pattern, which may either be a "head and shoulders" or a "double top." (pattern completes if the s&p cash breaks below 1043) For a more detailed explaination on right and left hand translation and a graphic on this discussion, please see my article in the August 2003 "SFO" I hope this makes my previous post a bit clearer. Thanks, Slim
A question that I've been working on latly is. Study only 1 market and devlope ?? methods to trade in as many cycles as possible? Like a BO method for when the market is trending, a reversal method for when the market is in a range, scalping method when the market is choppy,exc.... And some way of determing what type of cycle the market is in, when it might change, and so on. Or, study just one or two setups for your favorite type of trading, and take that to which ever market is exibiting the type of action your setups are most likly to work with? I hope this makes sense. Thank you sulong
I think it is very difficult to dance between many different methods. The problem is the markets change character so often that you have to keep guessing and second guessing which method to trade and whether your in the right one at the time. The two easiest markets to identify for the purposes of daytrading, for me, are choppy vs trending markets. And that is the only time I switch my method. For swing traders, you're much better off avoiding the market "noise" and staying with your original trade objective. Thanks for the question, Slim
I have a question about the PDT Rule? I am a Canadian citizen and would like to know if that rule aplies to me for trading? If so how does the Nasdaq even know if we have $25 + in our account? I have talked to AmeritradeCanada, EtradeCanada and they both said it does not apply to canadians. I also talked to IB and they said I can only make 3 trades every week to make sure I don break that rule. I would like to know your oppinion PLEASE!! Question 2: Why do they force you to trade on margin?? Its more risky to trade on margin than it is to trade with cash?
Margin, in and of itself, does not increase your risk. Your level of risk is determined by (a) probability of success/failure and (b) capital exposure. A margin account enables one to increase their capital exposure beyond what they possess, and is thus associated with greater risk.
Why would you want to trade more than 3 times a week with an Etrade or Ameritrade account anyway? You'd probably be spending far more on commissions than any profit you could make. The only one with reasonable commissions in Canada is Interactive Brokers but they'll apply the PDT rule for accounts smaller than 25K.
I have an old Datek Account that I opened back in 1997 that is now an Ameritrade Canada account. I don't think these guys are on the ball because apparently, I'm still an Ameritrade Elite member when I haven't fulfilled the min trade requirements for the past 6 months. I've been sent 2 letters telling me I'm no longer an Elite member but I still have access as an Elite. So to answer your PDT rule with Ameritrade Canada, I think us Canadians are subject to the PDT rule and if your account hasn't been restricted yet, then it's Ameritrade's slowness. My margin account is subject to the PDT and I have less than $25k in it. I've been hit once with the PDT rule and was restricted as a cash account for over a month. It really hurt my ability to trade because I can't go short in a cash account. Oh well, live and learn. DNAJ65000