Traders' Commitments (from Barron's)...

Check out Traders' Commitments for the e-mini in Barron's (page MW36)...

Small Traders are long 459,000 contracts and short just 50,000.

Conversely -- Large Speculators and Commercial Hedgers are absolutely loaded for BEAR!!

... which side would you prefer to be on??:eek:

dog

 

Thanks for that report. I will take the Specs and Commercial. I was following that number previously and think, on balance the big boys get their way. But, good to know that a huge squeeze could also come from that large short number. Maybe above 950? Lets see. Bling

 

http://www.marketpit.com/S&P500.htm

 

But also note that 3/28/03 was the first time since the year 2000 that the Commercials in the large S&P contract were net long. And they have stayed that way for the last 6 reports.

Anyone have any insights into why the Commercials in the large contract and those in the e-mini are leaning so differently?

 

Since the commercials are net long the large contract, and net short the mini, something is going on. Perhaps they are using the emini to hedge, or there may be some option plays in effect.

I have found that it is dangerous to look at the COT unless you track it for a long time and find a correlation that works consistently.

Simply having a market bias, and then looking at one contract of the COT can be very dangerous.

However, I would tend to bet against the small speculators, as they are the most consistently wrong.

Large speculators are a much better bet.

Remember, commercials use the futures to hedge actuals.

 

I believe that the emini is used to hedge. You can also get the COT report every Friday afternoon at:

http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftchome.htm

Click on "Current COT Reports". What is important is to look at the net, long minus short, and compare to historical average, and how the net changes from week to week.

Charles

 

Why don't you add the figures together, multiplying the emini by five before adding?

 

IMO, simply not enough info in the above. Real question is, how much money is on sideline, ready to pounce? If it's enough to outweigh those that already commited then the path of the least resistance is up.

 

If you were to do this, you would want to divide the net e-mini position by 5 since each e-mini contract is worth 1/5 the dollar value of the large one.

 

IMHO, the position that scares me the most is the net long on the large contract. More importantly, the huge squeeze for the upside traders that the hedge in the mini's suggests is mindboggling! Maybe below 750? HOLD ON TIGHT MINYANS!