traderkay's stupid paper trades

3 trades:

1) L +0.48 Perfect bullflag.
2) S -0.09 Support becoming Resistance. Not!
3) L BE Let me ask you this. From 2:28 till EOD. What kind of crap action is that? I tried to go long on pullback to resistance after close above it. Narrowly stopped out 2 times. Then had to wait 40 mins for breakeven. Blah. Here's traderkay's piece of wisdom: If tha price be snaking around tha S/R, without either bouncing or breaking out, stay the * out.

Total: +0.39

 

Have you tried this:
http://members.aon.at/tips/index.html

 

what do u mean have i tried that?

 

4 trades:

1) S BE shorting at R (hmm perhaps the range was not big enough to warrant 3:1 risk/reward?) Came within 3 cents of being 3X win but came back to BE, damn it.
2) S BE shorting at R
3) S -0.13 S becoming R (not!)
4) L BE what a wild swing up towards EOD, no real opportunity to enter on pullback

Total: -0.13

 

0 trades:

Total: 0

Just a total crap day, no setups at all.

 

1 trade:

1) L +0.39 nice pennant into 20EMA support

 

3 trades:

1) L BE
2) L BE
3) S BE

Total: 0

 

To BE, or not to BE. That is your question.

 

well it's been 13 trading days since i've been keeping track. 2 more days and it'd be pretty much 3 trading weeks. I've updated the equity curve which I'm posting below. Without unneccesary emotions, I'll say that it looks good to ME.

Here are some factors that would cause different performance with real cheese on ES:

1) some hindsight. some of the trades i was away from the computer and i had to make the decision on whether I would have taken them. I tried to stay as objective as possible with that and err to the downside.

2) due to emotional pressures i will not be able to maintain consistency in my trading decisions

3) The minimum 0.25 tick in ES, somehow messing up the risk/reward.

4) ES patterns are different than SPY. (doubtful since there's so much arbitrage between the two.)

 

i did some trade analysis. for 41 trades total. results summary is posted below. 1R scenario means what would happen if there's 1R stop and 1R target. interestingly, 66% would be wins. is that a good % scalper (im kind of a scalper amn't I)? Basically whether I do that or my current way, the results would be the same. Now the question is if I was going for 2R target rather than the current 3R target... would that bump up the win% enough to cover the decrease in avg W/L ratio and more? For that question I currently don't have enough data.