traderkay's stupid paper trades

I'll post some paper trades here. All fully explained with charts (how refreshing eh, except they are stupid I'll post when I feel like it. The trades will be mostly position trades in SPY. Everyone welcome to post here, except Jack. Most welcome replies will be the ones explaining to me why I screwed up

The first trade was posted here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=15740 And it was pretty stupid

 

Ok well it looks like we have something classic on 60min SPY. We have a primary trend, a secondary trend which was a 50% correction. The secondary trend took form of a bullish pennant? Right? Now it gapped up out of the pennant. And hrm, the trend is up and we should look to go long but like where? I'm stupid I don't know.

 

Good luck kay...

But now that I know you're stupid, your dumb ass thread is still very welcome...

 

788 low + 895 high / 2 = 841.5
which is pretty much were it found buyers again. Try to be aware of that 50% number for retracements. Not concrete always but at least its another tool for the arsenal.

 

....just to add, I would only apply this retracement analysis for clearly defined one-sided(parabolic) moves such as the one above. Then you can look for "potential" support or resistance on retracement. In other cases when the move is not so clear I think this type of analysis is suspect.

 

i'm looking to go long at the gap fill, if the gap fills, SPY will come back to a huge S/R line with which its been playing for quite a while now. what's funny is that that line happens to be in the middle of the big SPY range that started in July 02. In short we have 3 things going on as quasi-reasons to go long:
1) gap fill
2) coming back to super S/R line
3) testing the pennant breakout point

If this doesn't setup, I'll prolly play that downtrend line or something. In other words I don't know what I'm doing

 

who know but sound like a plan to me.

 

good work, traderkay. i am following your journal, it is not "stupid" in the least. keep it coming !

best,

surf

 

We got a 5min intraday symm. triangle. Now lemme ask you. How the hell is one supposed to play it? There were 4 fake breaks and eventually the pattern just died down without any follow thru! This is the reason I kind of hate symmetrical triangles. Do you play them?

 

Coils are notoriously unreliable. So, you don't play them (notice all the traps laid for those who tried).

The trade was the opening breakout. Very little after that.

--Db