I actually just posted the numbers of a stopped trade, but then I realize my trade missed firing by about 15 pips: more lucky than wise. So last stats stand 1 Wins, 1 Losses. Win Percentage: 50% Cumulative Risk Premia: +1.11 Average Risk Premia: +0.56 (last trades, recent first: -0.03, +1.12) Nevertheless, I will treat the trade as a loss and will not be back until Feb 14th at the earliest.
1 Wins, 1 Losses. Win Percentage: 50% Cumulative Risk Premia: +1.11 Average Risk Premia: +0.56 (last trades, recent first: -0.03, +1.12) New order: Long. Trigger: 1.3628 Stop: 1.3480 Cancellation: 1.3480 or Thursday 6 pm Risk: 2 pips + 148 pips = 150 pips = 1.00 risk point
Trade triggered around 8 am Friday. Stop moved to 1.3506 Open risk = (122+2) = 124/150 = 0.83 risk points
Stopped out by 12 pips! How unfortunate, I suppose this makes up for the last one. Trade result: closed 2/22, -0.63 risk points 1 Wins, 2 Losses. Win Percentage: 33% Cumulative Risk Premia: +0.48 Average Risk Premia: +0.16 (last trades, recent first: -0.63, -0.03, +1.12) Trading may begin again March 7th.
No trade currently, I would just like to set a stronger trade standard as my natural tendency is to take anything I see with an expected profit, which of course is influenced by heuristics and personal error into likely expected loss. The goal of the standard is not to meet it, but as a psychological reference to curb my thoughts. The expected return on the below is +1, although anything above 0.50 in reality is great. Trade standard: 67% win percentage, 2:1 estimated R:R 1 Wins, 2 Losses. Win Percentage: 33% Cumulative Risk Premia: +0.48 Average Risk Premia: +0.16 (last trades, recent first: -0.63, -0.03, +1.12)
Trade standard: 67% win percentage, 2:1 estimated R:R 1 Wins, 2 Losses. Win Percentage: 33% Cumulative Risk Premia: +0.48 Average Risk Premia: +0.16 (last trades, recent first: -0.63, -0.03, +1.12) New order: Heuristic Expectation: 50% percentage, 2-2.5:1 R:R, timeframe: 4+ weeks Short. Trigger: 1.3682 Stop: 1.4027 Cancellation: 1.4049 or Friday 3/11 @3:50 pm Risk: 2 pips + 345 pips = 347 pips = 1.00 risk point