Trader Heaven

Discussion in 'Trading' started by trefoil, Aug 11, 2007.

  1. The next few years are going to be a trader's dream, IMO. I figure where we are is analogous to the late sixties, and what happened to the market over the next few years after that was increasing volatility as the market topped and then finally got cut in half in 1973 and 1974.
    Attached is where I think we are, comparatively. The red line points to March 1968, when the London Gold Pool was busted up; it was the first large crack in Bretton Woods. I think this subprime debacle is similar, in that I don't think it will end the current arrangement, where Asia buys our excess dollars, but I do think it's wobbling.
    The highs and lows from March 1968 to the final low in Sept 1974 are instructive:

    87.50 - Mar 68 low
    109.09 - Nov 68 high
    70.94 - May 70 low
    104.40 - Apr 71 high (intermediate)
    89.34 - Nov 71 low (intermediate low during which Nixon closed the gold window, ending Bretton Woods for good)
    121.74 - Jan 73 high
    60.96 - Sep 74 low

    Obviously, history won't repeat exactly, but I do think we will go through a similar topping process, where volatility increases and both higher highs and lower lows are put in. Also, if you look at the green line, traders will be the only ones making money: bulls just got shaken and stirred again and again and again as it zoomed over that line and then crashed under it, and when it was all over, the market was lower than where it was in March '68, even before adjusting for inflation.
    Word of caution: nothing lasts forever. After that Sep 74 low, the market zoomed to a high of 100.86 in Jan 76, in a final burst of volatility. Over the next two years, it barely moved.
    Bottom line: if you're an investor, I think CME is probably going to be the only good long-term play here. Between the higher volatility and portfolio margin accounts, they'll clean up.