amy, Here is an exercise that I've been using lately to prepare myself for larger size, or at least not crumble under the pressure of seeing swings by the significant dollar figures. Open a free demo account in the metatrader platform of your favorite bucketshop...forex broker. And select a larger balance, and basically start mirroring trades at larger lot sizes. This will allow you to SEE the actual changes in prices and get your brain to not panic. I don't trade huge size (relative to your 50 lot), at my peak, I probably had 5-10 full lot going on. It was scary when I first saw that. But with the demo, I'm getting more used to seeing it. The downside is the importance of money becomes less significant. So when you go to the mall or buying something, what used to be outrageous, seems small in comparison and you really lose the value perception. Your brain is already programmed to see swings by the thousands. And who the hell is this BSD in your chatroom? This sounds like some high roller chat room.
I just don't feel myself today and had some trouble coming up with likely directions in some of the individual pairs which lead to this analysis. Therefore I'm going to trade probably half sizes tomorrow on this unless REAL TIME tools give me more confidence. Another person I trade with and share ideas with had totally different opinions on way too many pairs for me to feel real confidence in this today so I may mainly trade whatever pairs are HOT. IE if EUR is super strong and stronger than 80%+ others and USD weak than I'm buying EUR/USD pullbacks! The score is composite of all pairs and Predict is what I thought of that pair. .7 means I think its 70% likely to go up or at least find support and then go up and a .3 would mean I feel its 70% likely to go DOWN. Likely buys Score Predict AUD/JPY 0.59 0.7 Possible buy 61.79 but strong 61.26 to 60.81 USD/JPY 0.58 0.6 Buy 97.59 to 97.5 GBP/JPY 0.57 0.55 Buy 136.00 to 135.60 NZD/JPY 0.56 0.7 Buy breakout of 49.00 high and buy 48.00 to 47.85 USD/CAD 0.54 0.6 Buy 1.2876 to 1.2850 EUR/JPY 0.54 0.6 Buy 122.50 CAD/JPY 0.53 0.55 Buy 75.50-75.41 GBP/CAD 0.53 0.55 AUD/USD 0.52 0.55 Buy .6354 to .6333 EUR/CAD 0.51 0.45 USD/CHF 0.5 0.55 Could go either way but probably down NZD/USD 0.5 0.4 Sell .5000 to .5016 Likely Sells EUR/GBP 0.48 0.4 GBP/USD 0.48 0.55 Buy breakout of 1.4080 and Sell 1.4182 to 1.4212. Sell breakdown of today's low EUR/USD 0.47 0.45 Sell breakdown of 1.2550, Sell 1.2630 to 1.2650
Good advice. I'm really happy with current results but every once in awhile try to push myself. That 50 lot trade I had on ONCE was very scary and it didn't initially go my way, was down almost 10 pips in it at first and then luckily it reversed. SCARY. The chat room I trade in has mostly people with $1,000 to $5,000 accounts, many seem to be new traders. The guy with bigger account hasn't been in there lately but I think its because he's moving. He could be full of $hit about his lot sizes but most of the trades he calls out are winners or small losses and he's right about direction more than not so I tend to believe him. I'm rarely in there myself as I find it distracting and only go in out of boredom sometimes when I am sitting down watching trades. I have in the past been TALKED OUT of taking a trade by people going the other way and often I was right and missed out on my trade because of both anxiety and also not wanting to make money when an online buddy or chat pal has lost! So thats my main motivation to not be watching what other people say when trading! The flipside is seeing a bunch of people talking about positions in same direction I'm in and if I recognize them as good traders I tend to hold positions longer and that usually works out positively.
You guys may find this useful. NEWS: GBP 4:30 AM est Services PMI USD 8:15 AM est ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 10:00 AM est ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 10:30 AM est Crude Oil Inventories AUD 7:30 PM est Building Approvals / Trade Balance EUR/USD sold off to double bottom at support which has contained price several times since last week. Watch for potential selling opportunities if price breaks down below 1.2514 level but also be cautious of a false breakout. The next possible support is the fib target clusters of 1.2459 and 1.2424 (and monthly pivot.) If price rallies, 1.2618 is the 62% retracement of Tuesday's swing and 1.2700 should be strong possible resistance if tested on Wednesday! GBP/USD had a light ranging day as price failed to make a higher high or lower low then Monday's price action and consolidated for the majority of the session. Watch the current weekly low of 1.3960 as potential support but IF BROKEN, be ready to sell the breakdown as this may trigger stops and result in a strong sell off. The next possible support is 1.3804 and 1.3751 both as light support. IF price rallies, 1.4160 and 1.4207 are the next fib levels that may offer resistance. USD/JPY rallied but failed to test last week's and the current monthly high of 98.71 but the Usd/Jpy still has a lot of momentum from the recent strong rally and may be ready to again test this level on Tuesday. IF price does rally, as mentioned, 98.71 may be resistance and 99.60 is the next fib target cluster. IF price does sell off, 96.92 is the current weekly low where price has held several times and 96.35 is a weekly pivot and fib retracement which may also be support! USD/CHF ended up rallying and double topping at the weekly highs after a brief sell off. Price is still rated as somewhat strong will likely retest last week's highs just before the massive sell off on Friday. If price does rally, 1.1795 is the current weekly high and mid-monthly pivot and 1.1885 is the previously mentioned level which is likely to be potential resistance. IF price sells off, the current fib retracement levels from last week's low are 1.1668 and 1.1628. USD/CAD again extended its weekly rally as price is making new yearly and monthly highs and is likely to test last year's highs of the 1.3000 level. This is more then likely strong possible resistance the 1st time it is tested so watch for resistance from 1.3000-1.3015. IF price sells off, 1.2751 should be strong support and 1.2683 is the next major fib level for possible support. EUR/JPY rallied above Monday's range but also had very non-volatile and light ranging price action. Eur/Jpy is still rated as somewhat strong as price is still above the 20/50 day MA's so watch for possible resistance at the fib targets of the week's high /low at 125.15 and 125.73 for light resistance and stronger potential resistance at the monthly high of 126.08. IF price sells off, 122.00 is the beginning of strong potential support fib cluster!
LOL. You should hear about my tale of how I got started. I quit my day job thinking I was some hot stuff trader (of course, looking back now, I was a complete retard...and I think now, WTF were you thinking?). Proceeded to lose $13K on the very next day that I quit my job, which was a significant amount of my stake money. It was a surreal experience, and let me tell you, that will put the fear of God in you. I don't remember a time when I was so self reflective, and wondered what my meaning in life was. Well, being in a fetal position and sucking my thumb didn't help either. LOL. Good trading to you. And the tougher the road, the sweeter the victory.
Today's trends were fantastic. This is my favorite tool by far for trading trends. My AUD/JPY I felt was 70% likely to go up and as you can see with this tool the AUD in REAL TIME confirmed what I thought and JPY was weakest. JPY trending down against 100% of pairs most of the night and AUD and NZD strongest and going up. I had an incredible night as I always double up trades when REAL TIME strength/weakness matches my overnight predictions. With this tool you want to buy AUDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDJPY and NZDUSD all night on sideways breakouts or pullbacks IF there are any! Sometimes with this level of statistical strength you get NO PULLBACKS!
Here's screen shot showing how INTENSE THE AUD/JPY trend is. It's days like this that I'm glad I gave up the rat race and trade for a living. Most days you just have to grind it out but every once in awhile you get an amazing trend like this.
I wasn't trading last night at 7pm when it got hit, but it looks like my 122.50 area was perfect low of EURJPY last night. Shot up almost 250 pips from there! I also look for narrow range breakouts in direction of the trend and you can see those labeled by NR4 and NR7 on chart. The dots are the counter trend system I use.
Here's sort of a live trade for you all. My EURUSD 1.2630 area just got hit and I'm short, you may be able to get in on this on small move up to 1.2620 to 25 area or watch 1.2600 to get broken with stop just above it. My target is 1.2580 as I think it will break support and momentum will push it down to there. Leaving for now so can't watch it, stop at 1.2650 as I traded just a few lots on this one.