Burned my first account. Now I'm starting something new. I've just recently learned price action trading using just a couple tools to trade. I was using MACD, RSI, and ADX, now it's pretty much just chart reading and something I call supply and demand zones. Trading the emini - S&P 500, look at crude oil (market moves so fast). I also wondering what a good "counter trend market" would be for the ES. Looked at the 30yr. bonds (ZB) but the tick size is a little strong for me right now. Here's my CL and ES charts. Red boxes = supply zones green boxes = demand zones blue tags = profit trades red tags = losing trades Rules: See entry and target 10min+ away from when price hit it. Trade only in the zone or as price leaves zone. Zones last for price to hit them 3 times. Move original stop lost 10 mins after price moves in my direction. Take profits: 1:3 ratio from stop loss to target 1 target: Recent past Doji bar. 2 target: 20 Moving average line. 3 target: Price moves outside BBands on the opposite side 4 target: Prices enters another zone.
1) ZN's tick is half the size of ZB's. ZF's tick is half the size of ZN's (1/4th of ZB). Also they <i>tend to</i> have lower volatility. Be aware, however that the usual risk on/off theme for Stocks vs. Treasuries has been altered by the FED's POMOs (i.e. everything can go up/down at the same time for a sustained period of time). 2) Don't understand what that means. How is the zone at 88.80-ish supply? What do you base your zones in? Stop losses? Targets? (Not prying, just trying to understand your method). PS: I think you've posted the CL chart twice by mistake (instead of ES & CL).
Actually it's a Demand zone, but I sometimes forget to change my colors. Would love an addon for NT that would allow you to shortcut different color of boxes; still working on programming language. supply/demand or commonly support/resistance. basically I have found that when price moves away from area of S/R quickly I move draw a box around the equilibrium range or " supply/demand zone". Price can not stay in equilibrium so that when price moves back into these zones it moves out quickly and to the untrained eye it may look like I'm "picking extremes". It allow for small stops and big rewards based on price action. Sometime these zones will make me trade countertrend and sometimes these zone will let me be the first one on a big trend. Just so everyone has an idea of what I look for when enter a trade. Trying to run my trades like I would marking up a widget in a store. All basic supply/demand.
Just curious. Besides simple S/R, S/D zones, Bollinger Band, Price Bars, what else do you take into account when you take trades?
That's pretty much it. Bollinger bands are kinda optional. The 20 moving average (MA) is vital because by looking at that I can tell if I'm taking a trending trade or a countertrend trade! You have to be careful when taking counter trend trades and make sure that I move my stop after 2 bars have developed otherwise it may go against me. Protect your capital! The theory here is. BIG wins 10-40 ticks small wins 1-4 ticks small losses 1-4 ticks this is based on the ES but same idea applies to all moving markets.
The ups and downs of the market. On the ES today, I still learning here; and only live on the ES market right now. After drawing my zones pre-opening bell, I thought the market might go down. However, price hasn't been here in a couple years. So I thought it was going down. But price was ranging in the wee hours. Thought about taking it short at the pinnicle at 1235.00 with a 1 tick stop loss outside my zone. That would have been the trade for the day too! So I keep trying to take price down on the trend and picked "the bottoms really well, during my trading hours. ES. -2 pts for the day On the ZF, I marked it up and was able to sim trade it. I saw a nice 55 tick profit. However, I'm so new to the ZF I have no idea how much that is actually worth. Does anyone know off hand? I could look but I haven't yet. So here's the charts. Any input is welcome!
ZF chart To wrap it up. I'm really not good trying to just on a trend. I can pick the pivot points. But with my small stops. I not very good at jumping on the trend train!