I would have made more money on oil if it did not plunge to $0 first before rising based on my lottery ticket on the leveraged etfs (which closed) but still overall looking good. Crude: Exxon (XOM) Not expecting oil to race now to $60 for no reason but getting back into the $30s builds a nice support level to see us into the winter and hoepfully avoid a 2d wave of bat flu. XOM could see $60 before end of year. Other solid picks who still have not seen their best are DIS: Best of all was shorting the dollar against the Mexican Peso: Market will not magically recover but a sharp oversell due to no fundamental problems in the market often leads to great entry opportunities if you pick correctly. Also having a longer term outlook to wait out the waves. There are some names I grabbed shares a little late or not enough and I am regretting it now (DKNG, UBS) but oh well...
chingy ching......unlimited stiumuls and oil trying to hit back to $40 leads to big swings in market!
OK....getting gunpowder nice and dry for this sell off to get back in to some more names.... Looking at adding more DKNG (Draft King) and CPA (Copa Airlines - largest Latin America hub for travel and price dropped so much just on COVID). Still Short UDS v. Peso but it popped a lot and happy to scale in more here...
Mexican peso futures - Rolled JUNE 6/M contracts out to September /6M long. September is actually lower than June current price so rolled into lower price a bit and added contracts. If we can get through a semi normal summer then USD/MXN peso which live at 19 and spiked to 25 and now at 22-23 can find another leg back down to get below 20. If this stays above 23 -25 range I will cautiously add more but nervous about any tanking if Mexican economy really dives. I am using USD/MXN for explanation but investing in /6m futures to take the position. New USMCA takes over NAFTA in July. Assume it shoudl be nothing but positive but we are in an election year so who knows... Going out to September to let it ride this volatility.
Copa Airlines CPA Soliud $100 - $110 share stock with its new airport terminal set to more than double traffic. Corona put a nice dent in it but assuming by the Fall they can get back to more flights and traffic and next year getting back to full capacity, this will seem cheap at $50. I bought some at $56-$58 and going to scale in some more in the $40-$50 range. Other airlines have the same chart pattern but I like this since CPA is the major airline in all of Latin America and U.S. airlines are still going to struggle somewhat and coudl take longer to get back.
Not sure I would say crushed in the bigger picture.. Oil went from $10 to $40 in a little over a month and a half... Giving some back is fine if it chops in the $30s. the goal is the 2H or even 4Q and the move higher gives it a new base to build off of. When the economy sees normal within 6 months then it will drive the oil stocks back to Dec 2019 levels or close.