What is there to stop it tanking? The spigots are wide open in Russia and SA. World demand is crushed. World storage capacity is about 2 weeks from being full. The shale producers are going to crump bigtime. I think that is the reason for the talk of a tariff. There just isn't anything there to support the price. Mohammed bin Salman's grandfather destroyed US production in 1981 with a glut and he appears to know what he is doing. Pain for the Kingdom in the short term and higher prices in the long term. It pencils out for them.
If you believe in wedges this could be the start of the next leg down if market turns.. Could be a move back to 2400 at least. I think any positive news about curves or slowing rates could break the pattern and then we meander sideways but still off the lows. Lot of uncertainty but right now I would expect us NOT to close above this current level today and reverse back a bit given the resistance.
Mexican Peso fell nicely off of that top.... still short here because the Peso cannot survive in the 24 - 26 range....at least for long... I am basically short from 25.00 via /6M futures (chart is same but reversed so I am long the futures)
Adjusted the chart based on today's price action. Could we begin the next leg to 2600 this week? Not sure but if this is a true wedge this would be the short term top as it makes a short run to 2650 and tests it. I added a few more shares of some holdings but now leaving gunpowder dry in case we have the next leg down.