i've spent four years trying to understand the afternoons. i would say my percentage of winners in the morning session is probably around 75 to 90 percent. in the afternoons, 2:00 to 4:00, i would say that percentage goes down to around 35 to 45 percent and that is being generous. also, i am much quicker to cut my losses in the P.M. but also do the same with my winners. i also "try" to cut my size in the afternoon. bottomline, i make most of my money in the AM!!!!!!
Turlo, you are so correct!!! You hit it right on the nose in saying "We were taught, the harder we work the more money we make" I fight with this inbreeded idea constantly, I have the hardest time walking away from the market especially when I am up major jack, from the furocious bull market I learned to press it hard when I was up big bones, now I am learning to count my lucky stars when I am sailing well and tread lightly, my repetitive habits are slowing changing from sit and push it all day to attack and then back off.
There's a reason why morning trading is different from afternoon trading. I'll use X-mas eve as the extreme example. Some people are required to stick around on X-mas eve to man the phones, desks, and trading pits. The rest are in the market voluntarily and participate at will. 1st thing in the morning we have a full compliment of market participants. After the opening bell people start to disappear as the minutes and hours wear on until the closing when only the people who drew the short straw are stuck to close up the markets and clear the trades. The same thing happens every day in the markets only not on such a dramatic scale. The discretionary participants try to get their business done in the morning and by the afternoon the markets have a much lower population. (This displaced population can sometimes be seen outside swinging at little white balls while wearing funny looking pants.) So, if your afternoon performance suffers, perhaps you should consider investing in some funny looking pants. Matthew Shelley (broker) Futures and options trading involves substantial risk. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is in no way guaranteed.
good post....sounds like a reasonable explanation!!! I think the grain pits have the right idea at the CBOT. open at 9:00 am and close at 1:15 pm. just enough time to have the opening, then grab some lunch, then trade the close. finish up some paperwork and then everyone can go chase the ball of their choice!!!!
Very ugly morning. With the slow movement this morning I tried holding a few positions for longer time frames with larger stops. I paid dearly. This is no time to try new methods with full lots. This is a method I want to incorporate into my trading, but I must prove it out with smaller positions first. I stopped at noon and went and billed some engineering hours. At least I made money somewhere. Checking the charts, it looks like I missed a nice afternoon run. I guess I'll never know if I could have capitalized or not. That is what is killing me about trading mornings only. I will now be fighting for a breakeven week tomorrow. A far cry from my average daily goal. Still, I will continue trading only mornings through next week to see if it works out in my favor. Thursday: EBAY -164.8 MERQ +105.00 NVDA +90.1 QCOM +68.00 QLGC -429.69 SEBL -112.19 TOTAL: -443.58 before commissions / -566.10 after Last trade closed at 12:04 ---Johnny
I noticed in your post you used the words "try new method", "prove it" and "tried holding positions longer". From reading this I get the impression that you are trading alone and do not have a mentor. You are working another job while trying to figure out how to trade. If this is true, it is something that I have never understood about people wanting to enter the business. Why reinvent the wheel? Why spend all that time and capital figuring out what not to do when there are plenty of guys out there that are consistantly pulling loot out of the market using the same techniques day in day out without having to "try new methods" or "prove trade techniques". If you find someone that is trading successfully then sit beside them and do exactly what they do, you will then be using the same wheel that you are out there trying to develope. Just an observation. Glad to see that you are working another job, this is a smart move on your part.
Yes, I am trading alone. A mentor would be nice, but I don't really see a way to do that without joining a prop firm or shelling out a lot of money. If I spend that money in the market I feel I will learn as much and it will stick better. I trialed a couple of chat rooms, but for the most part they were a distraction and didn't fit my personality. Did you have a mentor? If so, where did you find them and were they effective? In other words, are you a successful trader, and if so, is it because of your mentor? Also, please tell me you are not a "mentor" that's going to offer to sell me lessons. The other job I am working is pretty minimal (5-15 hours/week). It does keep me in touch with the job market, just in case. I don't know if this is a benefit or not having something to fall back on. Thanks for your input, --Johnny
Decent morning. No big winners but I'll take a couple small ones just the same. I have historically given my morning gains back on Friday afternoons, so I'm taking the money and running. Friday: BRCD -37.60 BRCM +24.4 EMLX +66.00 KLAC +165.80 SEBL +217.60 TOTAL: +436.20 before commissions / +294.7 after Last trade closed at 10:47 For the week: +645.52 before commissions / +6.00 after --Johnny
I like this thread, nice trading insights.. -agree Don re focus on 2-5 max is a solid idea, get to know the tape for these stocks, the ranges, the price elasticity, when the order's being worked on volume vs chop etc etc -good observations re trade what works best for you, based on your graphing/keeping track of when/what sectors you trade best, times of day etc -having said that, I personally find that trading 9:40 til 11am is the best time window for me, eg my breakout trades tend to get the best volume and followthrough in this timeframe... eg compared with only 10-15% of the afternoons have had wide ranges in comparison. (this past week though, slow as watching paint dry) -also I tend to add "be more skeptical monday mornings" since market pace is often slower - using heavy volume and wide/clean lines (2-4 point ranges on stocks priced $25-$60) eg VRSN NVDA NVLS BRCM SEBL CHKP etc I also like to look for heavy volume on the last hour, previous day's chart, as a leading indicator for current open's volatility -Main point is, experiment heavily and do what works best for you based on your trade journals, when you do best, what type of stocks/sectors/time of day patterns. Some traders may like slower paced afternoon trades of 20 - 30 minute round trip types, I like 2 to 8 minute round trips done 9:40 til 11:00 primarily, fwiw. -Trading volatility is better this year than it was last year, but it's still a narrow-range, challenging "hot/cold" market.. -My personal challenge is still, getting comfortable trading 2K-10K share trades, vs the 300-1K share size I've been doing for years.. open to thoughts on this? eg arca's good for routing, still, getting multiple price points all over the tape, a challenge to work the whole order into the tape etc.. -in this market, the style is, in/out fast, clip out with quick moves .4 to .7 type trading, more difficult to achieve when working large size etc. my .03 ken
Pretty smooth move down this morning and I just couldn't seem to take advantage. At least no damage. Monday: BRCD +216.60 EMLX -5.00 NVLS -114.70 PSFT -148.80 QLGC +171.20 TOTAL: +119.30 before commissions / +20.30 after Last trade closed at 12:04 --Johnny