Hey drsammy I have a few suggestions on the topic. I have used Trade-Ideas for several years and I have purchased the oddsmaker. I believe that trade-ideas issues good alerts and that profit can be made given the right alert and filters. However, I do not believe that oddsmaker results are entirely accurate or at least that it is notoriously difficult to find results robust enough to work well both in the past and the future given the organic nature of the market. I have two pieces of advice. First, find an alert that you believe in, regardless of oddsmaker results. Then go into observation mode. Manually watch your alert as it comes in and watch the way the stock reacts after you receive the alert to decide the best way to execute. The best execution may vary from alert to alert, some require that you instantly punch in, other alerts may not back test well but are great alerts given the proper execution, such as fading or timed entry or some other atypical entry. So, imo, the best thing to is work hard to find an alert that you discern must be a good idea and then focus on researching how to execute it. hope this helps.
dawntreader, Thank you very much for your truthful and accurate analysis. I also had some questions about the odds maker. The filters are very good to excellent. I watch the filters as you recommended. However, I will need the robot to make the trades based on my filters and I would like a proper back-tester. On my quest for the back-tester. I would love to find a system I can use with Interactive Brokers. I really enjoy using IB.
I completely agree with your assessment Dawntreader. Which is why I use Cyborg to execute my Trade-Ideas alerts. Cyborg allows me to execute my alerts live or in sim mode. The sim mode has very realistic fills and allows me to forward test my alerts and try different execution parameters, and then when i'm sure that my alert and execution parameters are profitable I go live. Cyborg can punch in, counter, fade, act on liquidity thresholds, trail (price action, charts, or algorithms). Basically the alert ends up being only half the battle. They have a youtube channel where you can see a trader using Cyborg with trade-ideas, You might find it useful. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwfhT9y8xCY&feature=channel_page check it out drsammy, tell me what you think.
Re bot - it's very easy to write a bot that sends orders to IB or other systems. Don't waste your money on the crappy stocktickr service, it's charging a buttload of money for nothing. Re OM & T-I systems - the OM fills are impossible to achieve in real trading at the best of times and may be off by several percent. A few things to remember: * the OM gets filled at the price which triggered the alert, not at the next print, the bid or the ask. In fast-moving, thin or volatile markets, this can be a huge difference. They have a filter which excludes alerts which are really far from the NBBO which helps a bit but the problem's still there. * stops get filled at your stop price without any slippage, ever * stops are never checked during the first 5 minutes after entry Basically, the OM is a good simulator for anyone who is co-located at the T-I data centre, doesn't use stops and has a time-machine. It does have some valid uses though. If your strategy isn't profitable or is barely profitable in the OM, it's probably gonna suck donkey balls when you trade it live. However if it is hugely profitable in the OM, well, it might make money live or it might not. Lots of hype, lots of money, fairly little value. YMMV.
If you are interested in a system, or would like to have yours programmed, I can help. Here at Global Futures we work closely with the major auto execution platforms and could help you get your system implicated. We also have a bridge that would take your signals from IB and execute the trades here. Devin Brady Global Futures dbrady@globalfutures.com 877-367-3177
Take a look at the attached screen shot. I've been using this as one of my opening strategies for bout 1.5 years now. Can I look at the back test and rationally expect to capture atleast 50% of projected profits? How about 25%, hell, even 10%? Gimme 5, I'll take 5%, sure, we all would, if it were only that simple.This is how most people think about back testing. I choose to take a high probability event, such as the one in this strategy and simply send out limit orders at certain amounts inside and wait for my fills. I can range anywhere from 10% to 20% actual fills. So if this strategy sends out 30 orders, i can expect anywhere from 3-6 actual fills. Regardless of which ones fill, every event out of this strategy has a high probability of going my direction in the short term. For lack of a better desciption, it's a type of statistical arbitrage. And for those who like to be reminded of the obvious, slippage isn't built in and it's fierce on the open, that's why you have to have a bit of an over blown cents/per share. I prefer .30. Anyway, just thought you guys might want to here from someone that actually uses the product. Good Luck! QB