Trade deal signing on Jan 15!

Discussion in 'Economics' started by nooby_mcnoob, Jan 14, 2020.

Outcome on Jan 15?

  1. No deal

    3 vote(s)
    23.1%
  2. Deal is terrible for US, Trump got taken

    3 vote(s)
    23.1%
  3. Great deal, best deal ever

    5 vote(s)
    38.5%
  4. Other (specify below)

    2 vote(s)
    15.4%
  1. The deal will be disclosed on the USTR website once it has been signed. What do you guys think will be the outcome?
     
  2. Signed as expected outcome fully priced in. The interesting part is what will follow once signed.

    If not signed, I expect market backlash (duh), but this is an unlikely scenario. Better for trading though.
     
    nooby_mcnoob likes this.
  3. maxinger

    maxinger

    If SIGN, market volatility might decrease.
    If NO SIGN, market volatility might increase.

    Traders like increase in market volatility.
     
  4. MichalTr

    MichalTr

    It will sound strange in this forum, but i'm not follow this topic in details. But from what I think based on observation all the stuff around - In my opinion US is now aware that is loosing on this trade war more than China (there are economic studies about this). So if you know that in long run you will loose more and can't stop China before being biggest in the world (in long run) - you have two options:

    - to make a deal that is not great for you but is working fine (for now) or
    - to make war (normal military war) - fo course not with 1 country, it must be something with global range - this is the best known way to cancel the debt (and US is completely in debt and using paper money that has no worth, only global settlements make it still alive) and to stop others from grown and in fact to hold "old order"

    So maybe all the Iranian situation (killing one of most important persons in Middle East when he was ON DIPLOMATIC MISSION) and escalating conflict sending thousands of soldiers etc. - it's just a signal - "if we don't do it easy way we will do it some way". Because if there will be open war, Russia will stand for Iran and willing or not China will take a part in all this. And for China military war no is not best option - they know that all they need is time. Just time and they will be bigger and stronger than US (all the centuries had their most powerful nations, Spain, UK, then US, and XXI is time of China). Just the big puzzles. we have a clash of interests in many places - Venezuela (US, Russia, China), north Korea (US+South Korea, China) etc. etc.

    Answering the question - if they choose peaceful solution - there will be deal, not great for US but also not great for China (compromise). If they choose no deal there is possibility of global conflict - as a smoke screen for economic intentions. Iran has new very large oil fields, so it's target for US "democracy" and who is controlling strait of Hormuz is controlling all the middle east oil transport... And you can slow down China in the same time.
     
    nooby_mcnoob likes this.
  5. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...ina-us-may-not-release-full-details-phase-one

    Trade war: China, US may not release full details of phase one deal set for signing this week
    • Former White House official suggests that the full details of a US-China phase one trade deal will not be released
    • Text on structural terms will be published, but information on individual commodity purchases will not be made public
     
  6. On what do you base this statement? More specific: signing or no signing and its effects on volatility.
     
  7. S2007S

    S2007S

    No sign and market drops 3% but it will be signed and probably a sell on the news.
     
    nooby_mcnoob and d08 like this.
  8. I'm sure he meant volatility will stay approximately the same on signing (w.r.t. to this factor, of course something unrelated can cause market to move whenever).
     
    Sander1987 likes this.
  9. Thanks... In my opinion there are many more variables to take into account.
     
  10. S2007S

    S2007S


    Variables on the phase 1 deal?

    Its pretty much set in stone.
     
    #10     Jan 14, 2020