Nine_Ender, probably 70 precent of my logic bones agree with you. I'll come at it from a different angle. We've had a market that has been propped up since 2008 by huge monetary cash inflows. Huge. That since that time has increased an absolute ton in value. And that has now gone away. Possible recession very close. Interest rates way up in short amount of time. Inflation. Housing prices getting hammered. Etc. etc. My logic bones tell me that a simple drop of 29% in the Naz, much less on the other indexes, should not be even close to the end of it. But, 30 percent of my logic bones say we are going higher. Everyone knows exactly those things I mentioned in my paragraph above. The market reacts faster than it did in the past. Remember the COVID V recovery? And its been over a year since the downtrend started. The market should have figured things out long before the expiration of that year period. We've also bounced off the lows a couple times now (at least). So I dunno. Could go lower, could go higher. I'm going to wing it and go with my 30% bones. Let me ask you this. Let's say someone were to give you $1,000,000 today. And let's say you wanted to invest it in the market, just generally. The question is how much to invest today versus over time. Let's say you want to use DCA for the over time stuff. I might say something like this: Invest 20% today, and of the 80% remainder, invest equal amounts each week over the next 26 weeks. I think that would get you a decent amount in today, but not too much so if the market has another good drop as you think it will (and I don't disagree with) you can DCA into some better prices. What would your mix be? Thanks!
I didn't say the market will drop just that it's possible. My base case remains moderately higher SPX by year end, with the TSX outperforming that and the QQQ unclear but likely worse then the SPX. My strategy is primarily commodity based plays for now and be ready to diversify later. It's done really well since Nov 30.