Year to date NDX is down futher, SPX is almost flat. I am going to stay with the Dow, as soon as I move and focus on something else the Dow will have a two month rally, and NQ will go flat.
Very hard to say...I would not [swing] trade SIFs longer term unless I did it with option spreads. Markets tend to do what they have been doing. We are in a trading range, and if you are patient, you wait for YM 10100, and sell at 10850, until it tells you otherwise. Anything in between that for the last few months as a long term play is probably gambling. nitro
Sure, The you could put on a bull calendar imo. And if YM goes against you and it goes through 10100 and a new trend developes by going through 10000, then you take your licking and form a new strategy. Or perhaps you buy volatility by leaving the bull calendar on, and also buy a put calendar... nitro
Rickshaw----------- You are right in the middle of the great Institutions vs. Hedge Funds liquidity fight-----------about 7 weeks old now. Institutions scored big in the first few rounds but the Hedges are back up and swinging with this oil run--------------great show if you ask me. The only way to win big everyday now in my opinion is to play both sides on an index {shorts and longs} out of separate accounts and find an edge to set and change your ratio's------this method is a moneymaker.
That is a very interesting idea and one that I have been researching. Your answer begs the $64,000 question, what ratio and what system to go long/short? nitro
The ratio changes on a daily basis per the days given price action in relation to what type of signals or indicators you use to determine where you feel the market will go next. I use Fib levels on a daily chart to determine {from the previous highs and lows} how my ratio needs to change as price trends up or down. Today I finished the day session with a 72% to 28% short to long ratio for what I am currently holding-------------around 1230 for the es e-mini I would run out of long positions and I would be at 100% short positions only. Yesterday my long side made some nice profits and thinned out a bit while the short side was building up slightly---------today the short side made some profits as the long side was building up slightly. I also have a system that I use to throw on some extra contracts at the cash open each day based upon which direction I feel the market will move that day----------both longs and shorts again at a ratio in accordance with what my indicators tell me will be the market direction for the day. If my market open indicators say to go long at the open then I would most likely go 2 to 1 longs to shorts for my extra contracts at the open. Whatever contracts are left over from this daily addition to the overall total running position, I just blend them in as needed. This is a very brief and general description of what I do, and this was developed over many months of manual backtesting and research. This is the only way to make very strong returns that are consistent in the futures market from what I can determine.
It sounds to me like you are creating a sort of dynamic ratio spread. Much more liquid than doing it with options. I've also experimented with the idea in the past, but never made much progress in terms of implementation. It is a solid concept.