Total Recall

Discussion in 'Journals' started by eurusdzn, Jun 25, 2012.

  1. eurusdzn

    eurusdzn

    Draghi ECB presidant 6am comment catalyst for big risk-on day.


    "Markets now feel that the most likely scenario is that the ECB will buy
    bonds in the market," ING rate strategist Alessandro Giansanti said.

    Ten-year Spanish yields were last 40 basis points lower on the day at 6.996 percent,
    some 565 basis points over their German equivalent.
    Italian yields fell 39 basis points to 6.05 percent.


    Durable goods sans airplanes is bad.


    FHFA Housing Price Index May 0.8% NA NA 0.7% 0.8%
    Jul 25 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 07/21 0.9% NA NA 16.9%
    Jul 25 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 350K 375K 373K 382K 369K
    Jul 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/21 2.717M NA NA -0.809M
    Jul 26 08:30 Initial Claims 07/21 353K 385K 381K 388K 386K
    Jul 26 08:30 Continuing Claims 07/14 3287K 3300K 3300K 3317K 3300K
    Jul 26 08:30 Durable Orders Jun 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% 1.6% 1.3% **********
    Jul 26 08:30 Durable Orders - ex Transportation Jun -1.1% -0.3% -0.1% 0.8% 0.7%
    Jul 26 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jun -1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 5.9%
    Jul 27 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2 0.4% 1.2% 1.9% **********
    Jul 27 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 2.0% 1.6% 2.0%
    Jul 27 09:55 Michigan Sentiment - Final Jul 71.5 72.0 72.0



    FXE 122.15 1.08% has rallied back to some resistance at 123 in just last 2 days. ECB meets next week.
    FXY 125.60 -0.06% Just watching this. For future ref, No trades taken with Yen yet. Look to spread vs others.
    GLD 156.77 0.71% GC = 1615 moving to top of range 1630-40
    SPY 136.17 1.65% 1375 is reasonable target. Follow through on Draghi? Some form of QE next week with SPY near 140?
    138ish is a good setup for selling but pre-FED?
    TLH 139.98 -0.39% Strong July PA . Very small pullback here. Decreasing day range.
    USO 33.41 0.60% Dont know. For future reference havent taken a trade in the reversal of euro summit up 10% day in late JUN.
    UUP 22.75 -1.00% Gold/Euro/Dollar moving in a QE/riskon/inflationary way preceding ECB and FED next week.


    from breifing.com
    Similar to May, the increase in orders can be attributed to strong demand for aircraft.
    Defense and nondefense aircraft orders increased 23.9% and 14.3% respectively in June.
    These gains were alluded to in the strong orders report from Boeing (BA).
    Excluding aircraft, demand for durables dropped dramatically. Orders fell 1.1% in June
    after increasing 0.8% in May. The consensus expected these orders to decline 0.1%.
    Even though the decline exceeded expectations, the drop should
    not have been too surprising. All of the regional manufacturing surveys from June highlighted weakness
    in orders demand and the national ISM index dropped into negative territory for the first time since the recession.


    ******From Marc Chandler....Dragi ECB pre. 6am market moving statement********
    What did Draghi say? There are two elements that are important. First, he said
    The ECB was prepared to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro, within its
    mandate. This hints at new policy action and the ECB meets next week. Second,
    he suggested that if the premium on government borrowing damages the monetary
    policy transmission mechanism, it is within the ECB's mandate to address it.
    This suggests the resumption of the sovereign bond purchases program (SMP),
    which was the rationale for it in the first place, over
    German objections (led to two resignations, Weber and Stark).
    By qualifying his willingness to do whatever it takes with a reference to the ECB's mandate,
    Draghi is not signalling giving the ESM, which does not exist now and will not for at
    least another six weeks or so, a banking license, as he has previously argued this is against the EU Treaties.

    **********From Marc Chandler on ESM banlk license************
    There are good reasons not to expect the ESM to get a banking license any time soon.
    First, the ESM does not exist at the moment. It cannot be established without Germany
    and Germany is waiting on ruling from its Constitutional Court. As a defender of
    German sovereignty, the Court may be reluctant to rule against something that
    parliament has already approved, but may put more limits on what can be done
    without parliament's approval.
    Second, there are profound arguments against granting the ESM a banking license.
    The ECB President Draghi said it as recently as two months ago on grounds that
    it would violate the EU treaties that prohibit the central bank from financing
    government deficits. The blurring of the line between monetary
    and fiscal policy is problematic.
    Thirdly, it is not clear what kind ofcontrols could be put into place.
    Unlimited ESM borrowings could, without parliamentary approval increase
    German (and other creditors more generally) contingent liabilities.
     
    #21     Jul 27, 2012
  2. eurusdzn

    eurusdzn

    Firiday 7/27

    Big SPY/BOND day without much participation from euro. Media attributes a lot to ECB/Draghi
    today but little action in euro.
    European country etfs up huge again today with debtors up most(duh).


    US Q2 GDP printed at an annualized rate of 1.5%, just slightly above expectations
    of 1.4%, and a 25% drop from the Q1 rate of 2.0%, with personal
    consumption plunging as a key contributor from 1.72% to just 1.05%,
    and government once again being less and less a detractor from
    "economic growth." Inventories "added" 0.32% to GDP, a number
    which in Q3 GDP will subtract from economic "growth." Now whether
    this headline number is bad enough for the Fed to decide on more
    QE, is up to Hilsenrath to decide. But in a Bizarro world in which
    only horrible data boosts the market, today's modest beat will
    likely not make the market happy, nor sellers of newsletters
    in which the only strategy is hope and prayer. And just as
    important, today the BEA revised historical GDP data retroactively.
    Of note 2010 GDP was revised from 3.0% to 2.4%, while Q3 2011 GDP
    was revised from 3.0% to 4.1%, indicating that the slowdown we
    are experiencing is in fact far worse than previously expected.
    It also shows that HFT trigger buying or selling on GDP data is
    completely meaningless as today's data will be revised violently
    higher or lower in a year, making it completely irrelevant.

    ************************

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande
    stressed Friday that they will "do everything" to defend the euro zone
    and urged all European institutions to "fulfill their obligations,"
    as reports in the French press suggested the European Central Bank
    is preparing to buy more government bonds.
    But Germany's central bank reiterated its opposition to any more
    government bond purchases by the ECB.

    Spanish yields fell 19 basis points to 6.77 percent , pulling further away from
    the euro-era peak of 7.78 percent hit earlier this week as fears grew Madrid
    would need a full state bailout in addition to an agreed bank rescue.
    Five-year yields fell 27 bps to 6.32 percent, having earlier this week
    risen above their longer-dated counterparts, briefly inverting the Spanish yield curve.
    European officials told Reuters Spain had conceded it may need a state bailout.
    Ten-year Italian yields were down 6 bps at 5.96 percent , falling below 6 percent
    for the first time in a week.

    Bonds/ Gold/ SPY the movers today.


    FXE 122.29 0.11% Well off highs, reversal same as UUP (57% component, yen 12% of UUP)
    FXY 125.14 -0.37%
    GLD 157.56 0.50% Dollar and hope/rumor of QE rally.
    SPY 138.72 1.87% New HH. This front running swing high has exceeded expectations. I dont think Europe will announce a
    bond buying progarm or FED will do a QE1/2 type QE3. I think Europe will disappoint. Same with
    Fed, No qe3, but I feel they can manage these market expectations with their statement.
    Bottom line for future ref. I dont think its an in the bag short set-up as easy as it
    looks. Still plenty of time. Expect quiet Mon/Tues

    TLH 138.47 -1.08% 10 year yeild 1.43 -1.54.Biggest selloff in a few months.
    Most media point to ECB/Drahgi plan.


    USO 33.67 0.78%
    UUP 22.74 -0.04% Hope rally in euro pausing. "OK" GDP (maket takes it as slight beat). Well off lows
    after a few days down. Doubt anyone give a... about GDP etc until FED/ECB out of way.
     
    #22     Jul 27, 2012
  3. eurusdzn

    eurusdzn

    6/19 Greek election swing high ends . Spain yeilds over 7%
    All risk assets down. Start swing low
    6/21 FED disappoints with no stimulus except twist.
    Continue swing low.

    6/26 SPY down for 3 days after hearing no QE3. Seems like
    technical support everywhere . Stabilize before
    euro summit. SPY support at 131. Swing low over.

    6/29 Big risk on due to Europe summit. Market rally 3 days before and 3 days after this event.


    7/5 Swing high ends. ADP/NFP comes 7/7 and disapoints
    7 day gradulal selloff begins. Fed minutes dissapoint also. No heart for QE yet.

    7/13 End swing low . China GDP, JPM earnings and whale loss all are less than feared.
    Swing low over...start swing high

    7/19 Spain > 7% , Macro data / earnings a factor lead to 3 down 1%ish days in SPY.
    Swing high over. Start swing low

    7/24 AAPL miss, decent PA and the next hope for QE rally into ECB/FED meeting
     
    #23     Jul 29, 2012
  4. eurusdzn

    eurusdzn

    7/30

    Info on this weeks ECB/FED meetings from Marc Chandler

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/761261-currencies-consolidate-awaiting-key-events
    Explains reasonable likely for FED to push action futher out..see a couple more NFP's etc. Jackson Hole.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/762011-europe-urgent-or-not
    Germany's Schaeuble's argument that a few auctions with higher yields is not an emergency for Spain.

    FXE 121.86 -0.35%
    FXY 125.62 0.38%
    GLD 157.43 -0.07%
    SPY 138.68 0.00%
    TLH 138.97 0.36%
    USO 33.45 -0.65%
    UUP 22.77 0.13%
    VXX 13.96 +2.00%

    volatility and bonds up, tension over ECB/FED. GLD/SPY/UUP flat. Euro down pretty good.

    Doji in SPY . Short term overbought but no stoch(5) fast/slow xover or ma5 xover. Wait.
    Lots of dampening Europe expectations today in media. ADP/NFP Thur/Friday.


    7/31


    JUL 31 08:30 Personal Income Jun 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
    Jul 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jun 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% 0.0%
    Jul 31 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Jun 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
    Jul 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q2 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
    Jul 31 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index May -0.7% -1.8% -1.8% -1.9%
    Jul 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Jul 53.7 51.0 52.5 52.9
    Jul 31 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jul 65.9 61.0 61.0 62.7 62.0

    confidence, Chi PMI, personal income higher. Not negative data for market but benign.


    Read more: http://www.breifing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2012/07/30-03#ixzz22FzV1Jn1

    PA is very strong in light of changing expectations. I think Europe will say they will work towards implementing bond
    purchases in the near future and the fed will monitor data. No action taken is my opinion.
    Will saying it keep yeilds under 7% when doing it on a limited basis in the past didnt?
    I have several reversal signal stochs(5) fast line/slow line xover is present on most assets for a swing trade.
    No initiate shorts pre-fed/ecb. Standing by watching.

    "QE" is now mainstream , and , a solution to the "economy" along with low gas prices. "We are the deciders"
    I read that Consumer confidence is higher due to this. This is big political + for O and peoples jobs
    depend on this.
    SP500 130-140 is an Obabma victory IMHO . At least that is the game I would play and do/say anything in the
    next 95 days including a QE3.
    NFP Friday. What a gauntlet !




    FXE 122.36 0.41%
    FXY 125.72 0.08%
    GLD 156.57 -0.55%
    SPY 138.31 -0.27%
    TLH 139.19 0.16%
    USO 32.72 -2.18%
    UUP 22.72 -0.22%
    Nothing unusual.
     
    #24     Jul 31, 2012
  5. eurusdzn

    eurusdzn

    FXE 121.50 -0.65%
    FXY 125.15 -0.47%
    GLD 155.14 -0.86%
    SPY 137.59 -0.09%
    TLH 138.49 -0.59%
    USO 33.17 1.50%
    UUP 22.87 0.70%

    No QE today from FOMC. ECB up tommorrow.
    ADP 160k.
    ISM < 50 again , contraction.

    Usually high + correlation between UUP and TLH not there today.
    Bonds are the only thing trading risk-on after FED . Im missing something here maybe.
    Up, yes, but will we follow Europe markets down?

    Have ignored sell signals last couple days due to
    FED/ECB.

    Look to NFP Friday after tommorrows market action.

    SPY PA stands out as resiliant as ever relative to the others.
     
    #25     Aug 2, 2012
  6. eurusdzn

    eurusdzn

    Wednesday - FED
    Thursday- ECB
    Friday- NFP

    Drahgi/ECB could make no committment to ECB or rescue funds buying debt.
    No action and PA was relatively bad in Europe but DOW down -92 and coming
    on ito the close had to be considered stong PA.
    Germany is the big dog.
    The "up 100" pre jobs overnight session was one of the larger dis-connects IMHO
    Rhetorical: Who front runs (correctly for that matter) NFP after 3 bombs ?
    How can you re-read and spin the ECB meeting better/differently?


    *Note reason for no short was high volatility/ liquidy problems around these events
    Not true in this case. Learn to manage expected volatility better.


    The job report matched ADP at 160ish
    unemployment ticked up .1 rounded. No issue.

    Markets in general were up 1% overnight pre-jobs
    and 1% after. BIG DAY for reference/look-back.

    Up sloping channel from JUN1 still intact for SPY.


    ALL four major Europe markets up 5-7% on our job number.

    Negative PA previous day was reaction to ECB

    US markets looking forward to Jackson Hole at end August.
    Good news gotta be bad as JH is before next NFP.

    Gold pulled back/ dollar higher with FED and ECB as neither acted inflationary.
    UUP down real hard -1.22% with job report but gold up < 1% but PA of
    gold is bullish to me as ma5 holding above ma20 with price.

    FXE a BIG 1.61% move up. Are concessions to be made by Germany soon
    and/or increased tolerance to +7% Spanish yeilds.

    Next bearish inflection point maybe SPY/FXE
    Next bullish inflection point XIV/SPY

    Must go back to March to find TLH price trading this much below ma20.
    That large short lived March selloff was on Bernanke "No QE" and Bernankes
    opinion/reading of stronger data/ economy.

    TLH
    Bonds are acting as if economy is improving.
    Bonds are acting as if QE is coming
    Bonds are acting as if crisis averted/ fear off/ risk on/ credit crunch over/ Europe fixed.
    Bonds are acting as if dis-inflation is over and infation expectations are increasing.
    ....
    Fed says they want to keep rates low til 2014.

    Maybe an over reach coming here in the widdow-maker./ Maybe not.
     
    #26     Aug 5, 2012
  7. eurusdzn

    eurusdzn

    Nice summary gaming possible action post-ECB meeting

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/05/us-spain-aid-idUSBRE87405T20120805


    Italian 10-year bond yields were little changed at 6.03 percent as of 10:23 a.m.
    in Berlin today after rising to 6.28 percent as Draghi outlined his plan on Aug. 2.
    Spain’s 10-year bond yielded 6.76 percent after rising as high as 7.44 percent.
    Equivalent German debt yields 1.39 percent.

    While markets initially tumbled after Draghi said Spain and Italy would have to formally
    request a resumption of the bank’s bond buying in conjunction with Europe’s bailout fund,
    thus entering into a rescue program with strict conditions, they rallied the following
    day as investors concluded that ECB action would happen, albeit on an unknown future date.

    “If the arrangement sketched out is fully implemented, the ECB will provide an effective
    liquidity backstop, enabling sovereigns to retain access to markets for a large portion
    of their funding needs,” Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in an
    Aug 3rd note to thier clients

    *************************


    From Grahm Summers:

    Spain could potentially take down the banking system in Europe, which would mean
    the US facing a Financial Crisis at least on par with 2008.
    When European countries issue debt, it is mainly the European banks that buy it.
    So let’s say Spain issues €5 billion in new debt.
    Most of that will be snatched up by Spanish banks or some other European financial entity.
    This bank will then park this debt on its balance sheet as a “senior asset” or an asset
    that has the least amount of risk (I realize this sounds insane given how bad Spain’s finances are,
    but this is how the banking system’s “risk models” work).
    The bank will then use this Spanish bond to backstop loans to Spanish businesses,
    developers (not so much any more) even student loans: pretty much every other type
    of loan the bank might make.
    If Spain defaults, one of the most important “assets” used to backstop its loan
    and trade portfolio goes up in smoke. At that point the bank is essentially
    insolvent and would have to liquidate its loan portfolio while trying to stave
    off a bank run (as you’ve likely noticed, Spain is facing bank runs galore).
    This is Europe’s problem as European banks across the board are sitting on Spanish debt:
    Spain’s sovereign bond market is €2.1 trillion in size.
    So if Spain defaults, then a heck of a lot of EU banks (and some US banks for that matter)
    will see some of their “Senior Assets” go up in smoke, rendering them insolvent.
    This in turn could spread like wildfire throughout Europe’s banking system.
    This is why the Spanish bank bailout was so rapid (it took only one weekend).
    EU officials know that if Spain’s banking system goes down, most of Europe will as well.
    This is also why EU officials continue to give money to Greece despite the clear fact
    that Greece is completely and totally bankrupt and has failed to meet
    fiscal demands placed on it throughout the EU Crisis.


    Greece only represents only 2% of the EU economy. How is it that a country this small
    is still an issue after TWO YEARS!?!”
    Now you know. By some estimates, Greece’s true debt exposure is north of $1 trillion.
    Lehman brothers had $649 billion in assets when it collapsed. Can you imagine the impact
    that a $1 trillion vacuum would have on the EU’s banking system
    (a banking system which backstops well over €200 trillion in derivative trades by the way).


    How would the debt implosion of Spain’s $2.2 trillion in sovereign bonds affect the financial system?
    What about the effect of Europe’s $46 TRILLION banking system collapsing?
    It would be Lehman by a factor of ten, easily.
    So what does this have to do with the US?
    The US banking system is $12 trillion in size. And this backstops over $220 trillion in
    derivative trades. Of this $220 trillion, 85% are based on interest rates. So…
    If Spain, or any of the other PIIGS default, and Europe’s banking system
    (which is $46 trillion in size by the way) crumbles, interest rates across Europe will
    spike as the EU sovereign crisis spreads.
    At the same time, Treasuries will spike pushing interest rates close to ZERO in the US,
    if not into negative territory (this happened when Lehman went under).
    This in turn would very likely trigger an implosion of all those derivative
    trades based on interest rates. This blows up Wall Street and likely results
    in bank holidays and the stock market even being closed down for a period.
    This is why Europe matters. This is why Spain could wipe out your 401(K).
    This is why European leaders are so frantic NOT to
    let a default occur in Greece or Spain (remember, the Spanish bailout was rushed through in less
    than a weekend).
    Have a nice day.

    ************************************************
    from zerohedge.com

    We got the pre-spun job quantity data already, where we learned that nearly 3 times the headline
    print was due to seasonal and B/D adjustments and is thus nothing but noise. Now we get the quality.
    As can be seen below, courtesy of Table A9 from the Household Survey, in July the number of part-time
    jobs added was 31K, bringing the total to 27,925, just shy of the all time record of 28,038. Full
    time jobs? Down 228,000 to 114,345,000 lower than the February full-time jobs print of 114,408,000.
    Once again, more and more Americans are relinquishing any and all benefits associated with Full
    Time Jobs benefits, and instead are agreeing on a job. Any job. Even if it means working just 1
    hour a week. For the BLS it doesn't matter - 1 hour of work a week still qualifies you as a Part-Time
    worker.




    FXE 123.21 0.13%
    FXY 125.59 0.44%
    GLD 156.30 0.48%
    SPY 139.62 0.19%
    TLH 137.81 0.07%
    USO 34.42 1.03%
    UUP 22.60 -0.13%

    VIX 16.90 down 3 straight days new lows.

    Quiet day.

    Watching ZNsep12 , some support at 133'310 . I think 7/25/2012 talk is a catalyst for better PA (risk-on)
    Bond PA changed since then. Gold put in a big day there also and dollar down.
    Central bank related on both sides. Cant be looking to sell this quiet market here/now.

    Look into using bull spreads again for levels, say 139-142 SPY.
     
    #27     Aug 7, 2012
  8. eurusdzn

    eurusdzn

    Behind on the news but PA quiet. Below are 3 day % gains/losses . results.

    GLD 156.28 0.58%
    SPY 140.32 0.37%
    TLH 136.8200 0.02%
    FXE 123.24 -0.84%
    USO 34.91 -0.17%
    UUP 22.60 0.35%
    DAG 13.66 2.56%
    VXX 12.22 -6.55%

    Long dollar signal couple days ago, Bounced but may be done. Ma5 below Ma20 and price still below Ma20

    Gold relatively stronger than SPY PA over the last few days even with a dollar bounce.
    Wordwide easing scenario(US, Europe, China) seems to be gaining momentum.
    Arguments against this scenario futile and markets grind higher. Volatility new lows.

    Steel, coal , emerging market are rallying. Its one big trade.

    China exports down to 1% yoy vs. 8-11% expexted gain and past actual. Guestimate here.

    ie: China cant ease due to food inflation/riots. US cant ease with food,oil,rates,jobs,SP140,core CPI > 2%,


    Of note is gold and bonds PA. Both are 10 days or so into "easing" is coming.
    SPY magnet is 142ish. PA is of the nature that one down day can "take away" the last 10 days.

    Jackson Hole late August is getting too much good news.

    Bonds can continue down on easing expectations AND jobs/data improvement. Whatever said at JH may be bond bad.

    The trade is Central banks in Eur and US and China will ease. The trade is inflationary.
    This may be the relative pullback as volume is low and time is passing. Oil,euro, dollar pulled back a bit here.
    SPY, gold and bonds have not realy stopped in the easing "swing" they are locked in on.
     
    #28     Aug 12, 2012
  9. eurusdzn

    eurusdzn

    DAG 13.25 -1.34%
    FXE 122.52 -0.08%
    FXY 124.76 -0.47%
    GLD 155.13 -0.55%
    SPY 140.79 0.01%
    TLH 135.75 -0.77%
    USO 34.92 0.75%
    UUP 22.66 0.04%
    VXX 11.75 5.57%

    Chandler on Europe:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/805521-is-rajoy-serious-or-is-he-just-flirting

    PPI UP .4%

    Producer prices have moderated in recent months, in-line with recent declines
    in gasoline and crude prices. That trend is likely to end when the August data report
    is released next month. Food and energy will be up in August


    http://www.breifing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/ppi.htm

    Retail sales up .8% . Good is bad as PA weak.
    http://www.breifing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/retail.htm


    CPI tommorrow, Initial claims, housing starts and Phily fed next day.

    SPY approaching the bottom trendline of a very tight 7 day channel. Support at 138.5. 142 above
    Looks 1:1 up/down here. Gold PA says QE not happenning.
    Bonds at 8:30 hit by retail sales I think.


    Dollar, euro and bonds did correlate tight since 7/25 . Last 6 days bond PA weaker.
    Gold pulling back and dollar flat but bonds continue down.
    Since there is probably no US easing soon bond selling
    may have a more to do with Europe "rescue" is coming than US issues.
    Dont look to buy bonds as as proxy for long volatility or short SPY unless Europe
    is driver.
    Sell gold makes most sense but day late.
    Gold now working out in ascending triangle. About to make 4th touch of short term
    up sloping bottom trendline.

    Bad price bar in AAPL? Peekaboo top in SPY?

    The 4 big country ETFs in Europe are very bullish due for pullback with support near.
    Volatiliy up some today.

    Since ECB on 25th seems Europe remains big driver for markets. No QE
    this time shrugged or not acknowleged yet.

    Have a short setup in SPY. Must participate here if 7 day tendline breaks.

    Look to bonds on bad Europe news in future.
     
    #29     Aug 14, 2012
  10. eurusdzn

    eurusdzn

    GLD 155.63 0.32%
    SPY 140.95 0.11%
    TLH 134.66 -0.80% 10-20YR
    FXY 124.51 -0.20%
    FXE 122.12 -0.33%
    TLT 122.05 -1.41% 20-30YR
    USO 35.19 0.77%
    UUP 22.72 0.26%
    DAG 13.68 3.25%
    VXX 11.75 0.00%


    GLD swing high/lows getting tighter worhing its way out. PA bullish. US QE seems to be main factor.

    SPY same.

    TLH 10 yr. approx 1.5% to 1.8% in 3 weeks.
    Attachment of two year spread bonds/spy. clearly risk-on trade. See bond trader link.
    Stocks and bonds(as other link shows along with chart spy+tlh is smooth.
    Exit doors being rushed in bonds. Trading on its own. Recent correlations with others changing.

    2009 bod stock spread not in chart, but it was big as SPY = 667

    3 big risk on trades shown in chart started on sep 2010, oct 2011 , and 6/1 2012(central banks talking).
    bond./ stock diff > 20 starting 1st two trades( in the diff chart...ratio chart obvious too) .
    This trade starting with spread of 10 in diff chart. Matches expectations that this risk-on trade wont
    be as much.

    Do we test previous low of risk on trade at diff = 15, ratio = .9 ? If so the "measured move" is half done.






    http://seekingalpha.com/article/805...re-now-more-optimistic-and-that-s-a-bad-thing
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/783021-bonds-to-perform-better-than-usual-with-qe3

    UUP Down since 7/25 with good words from Drahgi and down with QE. Getting some data here dollar good.

    FXE two HH and HL's since 7/25. FXE testing some support at 122ish. Can it get to 124 again.
    Seems like another bear flag in longer term down trend.
    VXX relative firm PA as it didnt sell off.
     
    #30     Aug 15, 2012