Total Recall

This site provides easy access to me from multiple locations
and I read othes threads here too such as ACD and GLOBAL MACRO TRADING.

I am "retail Joe" and I want to jot down some prices, relavant news
etc.. regarding basic assets.
I often look at charts and dont remember what was happenning then
and whether I was bullish or bearish. This is my personal space.
I am older, conservative and dont trade much. I dont want to be effected
negatively about stating trades/reasons etc.. so I am not sure how I
will handle that.


Last Wednesday Jun 20th the fed passed on QE3 and extended twist.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ld-curve-flattens-after-fed-s-twist-extension

I was beaish entering and had tiny SDS position... I didnt think they
would twist as rates low and mild deflation ongoing.

 

.xls attachment test

 

Jun1 reversal in stocks and euro seemingly front running QE3.
Greek elections pro bailout but want to get better deal. Germany backing off austerity here.
Spain bank bailout is big issue and praised by politicians. No official request,. Audit.
Spain and Italy auctions/yeilds popped 7% ..lower collat accepted by ECB down < 6.5%
Public support for debt in the pas with direct ECB purchases and LTRO's. Again?
Spain bank bailout money to Spanish government. What will be soucre of money. Summit decide?
No mutal debt for Germany, Eurobonds, constitution, referendum. Summit this week.
Sentiment/PA has changed since 20 jun. All Europe has to do is say something/anything but cant.
Bloomberg article, BRICs are week. Bad data,deflation,capital flight,supporting their currencies.
Dont forget about this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...rrency-depreciation-since-1998-to-worsen.html


Misc....jobs, earnings, and fiical cliff ahead. End of quater / summer.
PG and others(forget) have guided down 5% ? due to losses in currency conversions.
SP500 earning maybe mid single digits and ongoing PE compression.

Jul31/Aug1 next fed meeting. Maybe repeat front running expectations.

Merkel today hardened on all stances regarding mutual debt and I forgot about
need for Europe FDIC to reduce capital flight.Seems it isnt going to happen.
Merkel:
“There must not be an imbalance between liability and control,” she said today.
“For instance, we would do a European deposit insurance immediately if it doesn’t
lead to common liability but to improved oversight possibilities and standards.”





MA5 MA20

TLT + + weaker positive response than expected last few days. Study this. Why.
HYG + + weak PA action after fed words slowing economy

EWG - - weakest of all lately
EWP - - stongest relative to others receiving bailout
EWQ - -
EWI - -

FXE - - big red on fed...and summit coming with low expectations already in there.
FXY - -
FXA - + big red on fed no qe3...commodities.
UUP + +

SPY - - 131.25 good support in the 130-128 level. I must wait till then.
Closed weak SDS position today, probably too soon.
FXI - - a little old support at 32 here. Next is Oct lows 28ish. Looks bad.


USO - - telling the truth.
GLD - - about to cross ma5 in middle of $10 trading range. No QE, deflation.

JJC - - downtrend
SLX steel in a range near OCT 2011 lows.
KOL - - downtrend. WLT,ANR,ACI are supposed to survive. maybe some day.

VXX + - quite low for the risk level I perceive.

Bearish but one headline away from 250+ dow points, as always.

 

HOUSING better this month. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE lower . Waiting for summit Thursday

May 29 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Mar -3.0% -2.8% -3.5%
Jun 26 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Apr -1.9% -2.5% -2.5% -2.6%

May 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence May 71.0 69.0 69.2
Jun 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 62.0 63.0 64.0

May23 New Home Sales Apr 343K 340K 339K 332K
Jun 25 New Home Sales May 369K 350K 350K 343K


ma(5) ma(20)
TLT + - -.39% tight range. price xunder up sloping 20 day ma. 5 cross below 20ma is
the 1st in long time. Twist/ capital preservation/ uncertainty shoud hold up.
Fear/Volatility low.

HYG + + flat

EWG - - +.21% support at 18.75. oversold
EWP - - mid range week today
EWQ - - +.21% support at 18.75
EWI - - France, Germany, Italy holding at Jun1 lows

FXE - - traffic 3 weeks ago at 124.5 , near this support.
FXY - - not watching this now.
FXA - + Found support at 100 and bounced up .6%
UUP + - -.18% Recently rallied 3 days with no QE3 and Europe hardships.Feds
soft economy words as headwinds overwhelmed for 1 BIG day. Sideways since
then along with stocks/gold/commodities and most everything chopping.

SPY/ES - - up .5% to "1315." 1320 then 1345 next level resistances. 1302 support.

FXI - - 32.5 support didnt hold two days ago.


USO - - 81 - 77.5 week range squeezing tight.inventory 10:30 tomrw 2.861M previous.
GLD - - -.75%

JJC - - holding at DEC 2011 lows
SLX - - same as yesterday
KOL - - same ''
VXX + - ma5 is above ma20 on SPY and VXX near 4 month lows(for 3rd time).
Decent bullish PA.

Read Marc Chandler daily.
Creditor nations cannot allow unconditional ESM/EFSF BUYING OF SOV BONDS because that would amount
an improper/illegal transfer. It can be changed at some juncture, but would require a
modification in the current treaty, which is still not fully approved and a delay,
pending the German Constitutional ruling, may see a delay in the start of the ESM past"
the July 9 back-up launch date.

The first reason then not to expect another LTRO is that the funds from the previous operation
have not been fully utilized, the second reason is that to the extent they have been used,
it has strengthened the dangerous link between the sovereign and banks.
Consider Spain. Roughly 2/3 of Spanish government bonds are owned by domestic banks,
pension funds and insurance companies. Their holdings were closer to 50% at the end
of last year.(LTRO).

In Spain, as was the case in Ireland, the weak banks are weighing on the sovereign.
In Italy, for the most part, it is the weakness of the sovereign that is an important
weight on Italian banks.

As of now, no country has formally asked for the EFSF/ESM to purchase their bonds.
ARTICLES BELOW ARGUE FOR QE FROM ECB. Markets may go up big with that.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...sis-ECB-last-hope-as-dam-breaks-in-Spain.html
http://seekingalpha.com/article/683...n-massive-qe-to-salvage-the-euro?source=yahoo

 

Jun 27 08:30 Durable Orders May ACTUAL 1.1% PRIOR -0.2%

DURABLE GOODS AND HOUSING, DOW +95 AND SPX +12

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/28/business/economy/us-orders-for-durable-goods-turn-up.html

Compared with a year earlier, May pending sales of previously owned properties
climbed 15.3 percent
after a 14.7 percent April gain.

Try using stoch(5) and ma(5) and ma(20) for context.
Try Finviz remotely and broker at home to state S/R and/or trendlines
and entries/exits based off
of these using 1hour and day bars.

MA(5) MA(20)

TLT ++ .07 narrow range.
HYG ++ .60

FXE -- -.19 traded down near support at 124.55.
FXA ++ .18 two day rally. stoch5 xover at 27
FXY +- -.39
UUP ++ .31* up with commodities gold and stocks with FXE down.
Everthing traded today like dollar down day.

SPY ++ 1.0% HH and HL recently,some technicals and PA indicate trade yesterday/today. Up 1% with euro down and dollar up.

FXI 1.58

GLD +- .19 up today with dollar up.

USO +- 1.34 inventories down 100k, not as much as expected.Ascending channel from Jun 22.
Lower trendline approx 79.25-79.5 . Upper trendline about 81.

JJC +- .90 commodities traded up today
SLX ++ 1.43
KOL +- 1.29
DRN ++ 1.17 real estate. stream of income good if no inflation. ZIRP is good.

Two day oversold bouce for all these countries etfs
EWG +- .85 stoch5 xover < 15
EWI +- 1.77
EWP +- 1.6
EWQ +- 1.2

Euro summit coming Thursday and Friday Jun28/29

 

8:30 AM, ES down .6% and financials off 2%ish on JPM rumor
NY Times report JPM Whale losses may reach 9 bil. (Jul13 earnings release)



Also,
Barclays (BCS) is down 8.6% as British politicians are talking jail time
for those found guilty of manipulating LIBOR. U.K. Chancellor Osborne tells Parliament that RBS and HSBC (HBC), as well as foreign banks (apparently UBS and C) are also under investigation in regards to Libor. Court documents in an unrelated case say hedge fund Brevan Howard asked RBS to alter Libor and the bank "received this request without objection."

Obamacare held up by Supreme court
QE3 info. Past QE timeline/statements in following link.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/analysis-bernanke-paves-way-for-qe2.html

GDP numbers coming out tommorrow. Link below is recent data May31. Q4, 2011 1st=2.2%, 2nd = 1.9%

http://www.tradingnrg.com/u-s-gdp-2012-u-s-gdp-q1-rose-by-1-9-may-31st-2012/

MA(5) MA(20)

2:30 comeback fro down 175 to down 20 on rumors and headlines from summit 149bil. growth package. European Investment Bank? gets 10bil.


"The Luxembourg-based EIB could use its capital infusion to increase its lending capacity by 60 billion euros and unlock 180 billion euros of additional investment, according to EU estimates. With the extra capacity, the EIB can keep expanding its efforts to finance EU infrastructure projects. In January, the bank said it was on course to gradually return to pre-2008 lending levels, with loans set to decline to 50 billion euros in 2012 from 61 billion euros in 2011."

Sounds like 10 bil for 150 bil loans to build roads.

ma(5)Ma(20)

TLT ++ .24% did not sell off with the huge late day reversal
HYG ++

FXE -- -.15% down 6 of 7 days 123.80. down 100 from 2am-4am
FXA ++
FXY +-
UUP ++ +.13 up. All upside in Europe session.

SPY ++ down about 20 late day reversal down 2. 132.79 cash.
FXI +- old support now resistance. does not look good.

GLD -- -1.16 .gold sown about $25 to $1510 support at 1480-1500
USO +-
CL down .50 with euro overnight. crushed at 9AM with financials?
range 80.50 - 77.50 huge.

JJC +-
SLX ++ steel up 3days. in a range
KOL +-

DRN ++ +3.07% has put in (2) HH and (2) HL very strong today


EWG -- 4 day chop near 6 month lows.creditors weaker than debtors.
EWI +-
EWP ++ spain strongest
EWQ -- week.

 

Todays economy numbers flat. No factor today.

actual estimate prior revised from

Jun 28 08:30 Initial Claims 386K 385K 392K 387K
Jun 28 08:30 Continuing Claims 3296K 3275K 3311K 3299K
Jun 28 08:30 GDP - Third Estimate Q1 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Jun 29 08:30 Personal Income May 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Jun 29 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% .3%
Jun 29 08:30 PCE Prices - Core May 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 29 09:45 Chicago PMI Jun 52.9 53.0 52.7

Jun 29 09:55 Michigan Sentiment Jun 73.2 74.1 74.1

InstSupply Management-Chicago Inc. 52.9 51.0 52.7 in May. (50 divides growth/contraction)

SPY up 150 from 2:30 yesterday to close, 125 overnight, 150 today

Excerps/bullets from euro summit.

*European banking Union by creating a single supervisory body for EU banks by the end of 2012.
*euro area rescue funds could be used to stabilize bond markets without forcing countries that comply with EU budget
rules to adopt extra austerity measures or economic reforms
*ESM program would be able to lend directly to recapitalize banks without increasing a country’s budget deficit,
and without preferential seniority status.
*With banks to be recapitalized directly represents a concession by northern European countries, including Germany.
*The deal does not improve the solvency of indebted nations. Allowing banks again easier access to more monies is not solving the problem

Indices up 2%+, commodities up 3% +, dollar/bonds down 1-1.5%, Euro up overngight huge and New York big fot 250 total to 127ish
Low expectations incorrect. Direct re-cap of banks from ESM(as opposed to governments) was allowed.
"rescue funds" ESFS ans ESM and others will buy debt, from Spain/Italy and not have seniority over private bondholders.
No preferred credit status should keep Spain/Italy bonds more attractive to privates.

No mention of ECB bond purchases. Sterilization failed last year. Would be QE.
No mutual debt mentioned/eurobonds. Spain a 20ish % contibutor to ESFS? Italy?



Summit "beat" expectations. PA of currncies/commodities poor this week. PA of SPY and euro country ETF's indicated optimism.

The weak up the most today. Short coverings big. Many "things" have moved to opposite side of range(resistance) in a day.

Couldve bought this morning pre-market when indices up 1% from close at that time. SPY/ES 136 resistance held before.

ma(5)Ma(20)


TLT -- -1.3% bonds moved from top to bootom of range but holding.
HYG ++
FXE ++ 1.68% big overnight move up + good NY action up 250. huge.
FXA ++ 1.84
FXY -- -.61%
UUP -- -1.36% at bottom of range( pre no QE3 bar) euro 57% of UUP


SPY ++ +2.5 %. ES up 33 . 136.11 cash
FXI ++ +3.63

GLD -- + $50ish
USO ++ 7.9%

JJC ++ +4.8%
SLX ++ +4.87
KOL ++ +4.47
DRN ++ +7.75


EWG ++ +5.71%
EWI ++ +8.84
EWP ++ +7.27
EWQ ++ + 5.95

 

END OF WEEK JUN25-29

Hindsight , for future reference, the best posture/trade last week was
not to be overweight pessimism into summit. It is reported Italy and Spain gave ultimatum ( buy bonds / recap banks) or they would "walk" from summit. So , Germany prevented that for now.
Big follow through on Friday from the 2:30 PM Thursaday reversal.
Did not accept and act on this after the close Thursday. Have seen enough of these type days/events to understand follow- through is probable , bettter that 50/50 , and can be big.
Buying SPY or selling volatility seems highest probability.
Beta is with oil and euro and others beaten down.

Monday 7/1
from breifing.com


actual estimates prior
Jul 02 10:00 ISM Index Jun 49.7 51.5 52.2 53.5
Jul 02 10:00 Construction Spending May 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3%

Highlights
•The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped below 50.0 for the first time since July 2009. The index fell from 53.5 in May to 49.7 in June. The Briefing.com consensus expected the ISM Index to fall to 52.2.
Key Factors
•The start of a contraction cycle in manufacturing is notable, but the data have been teetering on the edge of a contraction for quite some time.
•The regional Fed manufacturing surveys have pointed toward a contracting outlook for the past several months as every region has either entered or barely remained above its respective expansion/contraction threshold since March.
•Production in June fell from 55.6 in May to 51.0. That was the result of the first contraction in new orders (from 60.1 to 47.8) since April 2009 and the continued depletion of unfilled orders (44.5 from 47.0).
•Not all of the details from the ISM report look discouraging.
•The employment index barely declined (from 56.9 to 56.6), implying that manufacturers believe the slowdown is temporary.
•Inflation trends weakened significantly as the price index declined from 47.5 in May to 37.0 in June.
Big Picture
•This is a highly overrated index. It is merely a survey of purchasing managers.
It is a diffusion index, which means that it reflects the number of people saying conditions
are better compared to the number saying conditions are worse. It does not weight for size of the firm, or for the degree of better/worse. It can therefore underestimate conditions if there is a great deal of strength in a few firms. The data have thus not been either a good forecasting tool or a good read on current conditions during this business cycle. It must be recognized that the index is not hard data of any kind, but simply a survey that provides broad indications of trends.

SPY, UUP, Bonds, European stocks up today. real estate up strong.
FXE, OIL down.
Not typical correlations today.

Stocks fell on ISM but HH and HL to finish up. Bull market/melt-up PA in SPY
<50 on ISM is conmsidered contraction.

 

7/2
Candler on Europe
http://seekingalpha.com/article/698181-10-observations-about-europe


7/5
Jul 05 08:15 ADP Employment Change Jun 179K 110K 105K 136K 133K
Jul 05 08:30 Initial Claims 06/30 374K 385K 385K 388K
Jul 05 08:30 Continuing Claims 06/23 3306K 3275K 3283K 3302K 3296K
Jul 05 10:00 ISM Services Jun 52.1 53.0 53.0 53.7
Jul 05 11:00 Crude Inventories 06/30 -4.270M NA NA -0.133M

Read more: http://www.breifing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2012/07/02-06#ixzz1zmwCH7Jc

uup + 1.33 Gotta catch up on Europe here and a few Central banks easing
fxe - 1.76

I have stochs5 overbought > 90 and a fast/slow line xover on SPY. Some resistance aprox SPY 136ish. Short term uptrend with ma(5)
already pulling back once MA(20) and advancing on euro summit putting in 2 HH and 1 HL (use closing prices).

Thursday May1? ADP job number was overly optimistic and was the headfake breakout (CL/USO) before the Fridays worse number.
Seasonal/summer numbers in there. Market now is in better PA to relatively worse news.
I think SPY 140 coming soon and will pass on short set-up on SPY

There are a lot of swing trade/ day bar short setups here that look right BEFORE the NFP report.
Theres lots of numbers reports but this could be a big one for the bulls. I dont see it as symetrical R/W
in regards to good/not so good report.

 

125k may1 for apr
77k jun1 for may
80k jul1 for jun expected 100k

was 84k in jun2011 for context but increasing. now trend is down.
another slowdown but still adding jobs at a slower rate.

China 2nd rate cut in a month. BOE more QE. All 3 eased together but
weak PA.

Prior context for ECB meeting from web
"The ECB meets on Thursday. Expectations are for a rate cut of 25 basis points.
The markets are expecting a clear shift towards growth-related policies from the central bank.
There are also expectations of an extension of longer-term refinancing operation also known as LTRO.
If these expectations come true they are game changers for gold and silver."

GLD had summit and front running ECB meeting big up days/ breif rally.
Down 1-1.5% per day for Job dissapoint and ECB dissapoint.


ECB cut .25% to .75% but did not signal additional stimulus and euro down big. "Took foot off the gas again" post summit. Dissapoint and bad PA in country etfs and euro and sov. yeilds

Another opinion/summary on past summit results.
Merkel won due to
1) European Stability Mechanism (ESM) does not receive a banking license;
2)No Eurozone bonds have been announced;
3)No Eurozone wide bank guarantees have been announced.


Dollar and 10/30 year near top of range.

My opinion: SPY has good PA (down a bit in last 2 days) with Thurs/Fri
ECB/Jobs bad news. For reference, I now ( after some update on new/PA over last couple days) see better R/R to the downside as 132 SPY is more likely than 140 SPY . Expect hopes of QE3 front run to begin soon. Jul20 Bernanke speak. 31st meeting. Others will chime in before .