radar logic 2 days ago came ouy with new data www.radarlogic.com.............it is as if their is no floor to the falling real estate prices..........its just a complete downward spiral...a downdraft ...a vaccum......bottomless
blackstone noted its real estate related positions are a BLACK HOLE ....................IN TODAYS NYT C4
. February 2,2008 SouthAmerica: I am not surprised by any of these events, since I have been expecting these meltdowns to happen in the derivatives market, the real estate market, and a major international monetary crisis as never seen before - basically we are overdue for another global economic depression. The cover story of Business Week magazine that was published yesterday says: âMELTDOWN, for housing, the worst is yet to comeâ â to stress even further their point they have a picture of a house melting away. The forecast is that the average value of a house in the United States should go down from 25 percent or even further. They quoted an economist that said that it could go down as much as 40 percent since we are in uncharted territory. If the housing values goes down only 25 percent in the next 2 years as they are forecasting then Americans would lose over $ 5 trillion dollars in household wealth. Yale economist Robert J. Shiller points out that a housing decline that started in 1925 and ran until 1932 weakened banks and contributed to the Great Depression, which started in the US in 1929. .
. By the way, if the forecasted 40 percent decline in real estate values materializes in the United States in the next 2 years, then Americans would lose almost $ 9 trillion dollars in household wealth. .
Oh My God. scriabinop, buddy... sorry man, but this is just completely, utterly, absolutely, ridiculously wrong. Never?? Never, man? Never ever in human history will house prices be at 1999 levels? Please, I beg of you, post a retraction. It will do your cred a world of good. In fact it's the only thing that will rescue it. You're not a bad guy, Please post a retraction if you actually said this (I just took it from Doc's post above).
. By the way, you can read on Business Week magazine the entire article that I mentioned above âHOUSING MELTDOWNâ â at the following website: http://www.businessweek.com/magazin...6.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_best+of+bw .
Even as a bear I agree with you. IMO 2000-2005 is the "bubble" and those prices will be filled in. Taking out pre 1999 would be at more than a 50% correction. Not likely.
What's the hottest secotor or market on the planet this week? :eek: For the week, the S&P Homebuilding index gained 16.8% (up 28.7% y-t-d),
heheh... I'll stick my leg out. The only way housing goes below 1999 levels if oil collapses to $20-30 (and all the other commodities, cement etc with it). If that happens, and we fall into a price deflation spiral (err. depression), then of course houses can keep falling. But I'm not betting on a depression nor price deflation with the sort of 'expansionary monetary bravado' you are seeing coming from world central banks. (Oh now I realize you are criticizing my use of the word Never. I agree with you on that: never say never, right? If Ron Paul were elected and had his way and stopped the dilution of the dollar, then you are right, housing, commodities, etc --- prices would collapse on everything we buy. Way past 1999 levels. Guess I was being too liberal with the word 'never'. But that will never happen. hehehh).
. February 4, 2008 SouthAmerica: Usually our local Borders receives and puts on display the Business Week magazine on Fridays afternoon, and during the week they sell the magazines until the following Friday when they receive the next issue of the magazine. It is very rare for them to sell out the magazine and they always have one or two copies of the magazine left when the new issue is available for sell. Last Friday, as soon as the Business Week magazine came in and it was placed on display I bought a copy â the issue that the cover story says: âMELTDOWN â For Housing, the Worst is Yet to Come.â On Saturday morning I stopped at our local Borders and I was surprised to find out that Business Week magazine was sold out. This particular issue of Business Week sold like hot cakes. .