yes... seasonality. Sometimes ZS can trade like a dream, sometimes it remains bats(omething) crazy for weeks on end. Not a problem if you are senior trader established... is a problem when trying to qualify with performance. my very first combine attempt was CL & ZS. I passed the CL side with ease, bombed the ZS side for exactly what you relate now. Same methods, same tactics, same approach, same everything... except for vastly different price action.
Actually price action is not an issue. Liquidity and spread is. I think the best is to stick to one instrument and be consistent in plan implementation rather than switch instruments all the time. I trade with small stops and spread was atrocious on many cases. Thankfully entries have been good so far. It is all matter of liquidity. with pa, my plan includes various eventualities. both trend and failures. so chop chop is also ok for me. but seeing spread like this. it is pretty crazy. used to be some 20 min contracts per price level, now only 1-2
Part of "seasonality" is liquidity. When crop reports and data and weather aren't factors, market gets dull and volume declines. Characteristic of grains. Just like CL thins out for a week each month (right now) during rollover process. You can count on that going a bit haywire, consistently.
No. I generally agree with your comments on Topstep, but you're wrong here. With the 10-day combine you can qualify for a free rollover (or get your deposit back). In theory this could go on forever, and Topstep makes nothing from you. With the CC you're paying a monthly fee, plus the reset if it really becomes hopeless.
Not quite. If you do the 10 day combine, you are paying $175 or potentially $350 for two rollover notwithstanding. The continuous is $150. So not only is that cheaper but it has a free combine embedded in that cost since you really are getting two combines for less then the cost of one non continuous. If 50% of the traders get the free rollover (which is being very optimistic, TST is making $25 less per month under the new scheme. Yes, I get it, it's theoretically possible for some guy to have 100 free rollovers. That's one guy. The overall population probably has around a 40% success ratio on the free rollover. Now it's time for basic math: With non continuous: 175(.60) + 175(.60)= $210 which is the expected value With continuous: Simply $150 210 > 150 therefore the higher expected cash flow for TST is to go with the noncontinuous model.
Fair enough, I'm perhaps biased by my own experience, which is having finished a fourth rollover yesterday. If you keep risk in focus, it really isn't difficult to get a rollover. But I wouldn't say the monthly is equivalent to 2 10-day combines, since you can skip poor days in the 10 day, while a month is a month. Also, I think most people would take a break between combines to evaluate and revise their methods. So from Topstep's standpoint, the monthly 'subscription' is a guaranteed income stream, while the current model doesn't guarantee anything. Don't get me wrong, I think the CC is a perfectly fine idea, I just hope they don't eventually drop the standard combine.
Have we advised the CC 2 years ago, they would have called us all kind of crazy. But as you said, it is a fine idea to generate guaranteed income stream for them. The CC basicly drops the X% annual return needed requirement, which is ridiculous... Technically one could pass the Combine in 2 years... By the way I recall Patak saying a few months ago that they were very satisfied with last year's results, and here we go, the 2nd big change since that satisfaction....
It's not guaranteed anymore then you getting a rollover is guaranteed. People can stop after one month with the continuous just as easily as they can, as you put it "take a break". Although I think the data disagrees with you regarding the 10 day combines. Overwhelming evidence shows people trading every day, including the poor days and they take no break after the end of each combine. The bottom line is, TST will make less money with the continuous and the math bears that out.