Topsteptrader

That wouldn't be my choice of comparison, as it's intrinsically not comparing like with like: TST is targeted at people without the capital to open their own retail account.

Nobody in their right mind tries to trade futures with $1,400.

I haven't seen anyone disputing that.

I think you probably mean "My guess is that ...", rather than "One has to guess that"? I have no idea whether or not that's so: it's not publicly available information. There may be something in that, though: for example, I need to trade a minimum of 3 lots/contacts, myself, so as to be able to scale in and out of my positions, so if I were trying a Combine, I'd need to go for either $100k or $150k, under the current arrangements. Anyway, TST has announced that some changes in the Combines set-up are to be forthcoming "after January 1st", so maybe it's even worth waiting to see what they have up their sleeve, rather than continuing to debate the current set-ups?

 

Except that is what a funded account with only $400 cushion after 10 days means. So stop criticizing TST....

 

I don't see the point, personally. I do things my own way, so I don't see that kind of performance parameter as indicative of how long I'd stay funded myself. Some people might get funded out of luck, a select few out of experience, some because their system is in tune with the current conditions, so those global stats aren't likely correlated at all with how I'd perform myself. Heck, I couldn't care less if only 10% of their funded traders lasted more than 6 months before going back to a combine for whatever reason: trading involves drawdowns and bad luck.

I would however, be curious to know if it's actually true that they favor $30K participants as they mentioned in a couple of interviews.

Nope, and indeed @ScalperJoe and @Pekelo went apples to oranges, as they forgot about the max drawdown allocation. The bare minimum retail AMP equivalent would be $4400 (assuming a $3K max drawdown), and that's probably beyond the reach (as disposable money that is) of TST's core clientèle.

This is something we've already seen once or twice in this very thread last year... No, TST isn't as big a deal as they make it look, but it remains much cheaper than a retail account nevertheless.

 

1. Well, when TST explains their program in responses to the Big Mike forum posts, this is exactly what is claimed, so I guess you are disputing the firm's own statements, which is fine. TST is an opportunity, so the costs of participating must be compared with the effective substitute, which is to open a retail account. (Note, some copycat firms have tried to duplicate TST's model however they have so many flaws it's not even worth comparing).

2. Actually, many people open accounts with small balances, or AMP wouldn't provide the option to trade 1 lot of ES with $500 opening balance. Of course, the odds of a person trading futures with $500, or even with $1,400 AND taking decent checks is low. This goes back to the comparison of a RETAIL account and TST, hence the example. Since you cannot go into a negative balance, the guy with $400 on day 11 is the SAME as the guy with $1,400 in his AMP account, as Pekelo correctly stated. It doesn't matter if the guy doing TST has "no capital" or "limited capital." We're talking ODDS of profitability, and the odds in BOTH accounts are low, given the limited EQUITY balance. I have stated, however, that traders who take and pass combines have a greater probability of surviving longer since the combine is there to build discipline, or create the so-called magical "edge" that people talk about on this thread. You can have all the edge in the world. But without EQUITY, you won't last in this business. Read Maverick's post, it's an eye-opener for all pikers.

(On a side note, I recently saw the film "The Big Short" which was quite good. The "edge" of the hedge funds who capitalized on the housing crash was that they saw it before it became self-evident. I won't discuss the film and give away how they did it, but one thing they DID have was EQUITY, and the ABILITY TO TAKE A DRAW. Bill Ackman's fund, by the way, was down over 20% last year, one of the worst years for Pershing. Can he take the hit? Yes, because he has enough EQUITY to recover. Most traders who open up piker accounts or who think they can take their 30k combine, pass it, and scale up size to take a decent check are just unwilling to accept this reality).

Right, nobody can dispute that regarding the 100k/150k combines because if you look at the business model OBJECTIVELY, and you truly want to start taking checks, then these two combines are the ones providing the higher odds of success.

And you're right on the final point, hopefully TST will make continuing changes to favor the trader, which has been the case in the past. One change is to narrow the gap between the price of the combines, and I think many more people would gravitate toward the opportunity.

Just my 2 cents.

 

Ok, my bad. Yes, on the 30k the max draw on the live account is $1,500 in the first ten days, so to compare "apples to apples" it's a $2,500 account on 1 lot, $3,500 on 2 lots of crude.

Of course, higher on the bigger combines. However, my guess is you're going to get a call from the owners very quickly if you start making big (and stupid) mistakes with THEIR money!

 

Hm, you mean before you reach the agreed upon max negative balance? I'd have to give TST the benefit of the doubt here, in other words without anyone saying it happened to them, I think that's overly pessimistic. I recall only one person here on ET claiming they were micromanaging his live preparation (to the point he either failed or quit), but details were sparse.

The one interview which I remember about this, used -$3K as a max negative balance example, and I think it was Hoagland, who simply said that once you reach it it's written off and you go back to combines (quite possibly not free - that's at their discretion), and when you pass again, you get funded again like any new member, not having to make back that previous loss, clean slate. This is the kind of benefit that all those combine fees cover.

 

I agree completely with that, for sure.

It'll be interesting to see what their soon-to-be-announced changes are.

 

The 3 or 6 months survival rate isn't important for a comparison to how you would perform, but to see if the TST model is a good business, or just to see a more realistic number instead of what they provided. Any kind of statistic without a timeframe is worthless. TST can easily say they founded 370 or whatever people in 2015 if only 30 makes decent money after a year, that is what really counts....

But instead of survival rate, if they post how many people made at least 30K (or whatever bigger number), I am happy with that too...

A yes or no to the question of "anyone has made 6 digit profits yet?" would be wonderful...

 

I owe you an apology, actually. I thought this was the funded max drawdown, period, but you're right, reviewing my notes it's only for the first 10 days, after which the account is expected to be positive and never return below zero. Heck you only need the price of 4-5 $150K combines to fund an equivalent stand-alone AMP account (a bit more for CL) with their 3-lot live starting point.

I've decided to monitor the TST details page. Can't wait to see what they have in store!

Yeah but again that's more about individual performance than about TST's suitability as a trading environment though... I can't think of a metric that could truly be useful for that.

Hoagland mentioned that their good traders are in the high 5 digits, some maybe in the low 6 digits, nobody higher than that. He made it very clear to expect a "good salary" but nothing astronomical. Of course if the bulk of their funded traders come from the $30K combine, there probably are very few traders swinging around more than 5 lots at a time, so that makes sense. @schizo's thread is a good example of that type of day trading: $60K/year on quick positions on a small size (I think he's trading a single lot?)

 

"Hm, before you reach the agreed upon max negative balance?"

I wouldn't consider it "overly pessimistic" if TST called a trader who started off on a multi-day losing streak, for example.

There are already enough stringent measures in the live account (including the additional WEEKLY loss limit on 50k and above combines, which if followed severely reduces your daily draw allowance).