Not a compelling argument. "Failing" is only relevant to the degree that something of value is being measured. Given how the combines work, that's VERY debatable. The only thing that isn't debatable about the whole deal is that a very questionable firm will be paid for providing a service that can be had MUCH cheaper elsewhere.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see thru the facade of bull$hit. I just feel sorry for all the dreamers who fell for it.
OK, I'll tell you EXACTLY what is being measured, in my opinion of course. The data that we DO have to work with here, and there is quite a bit, are all the combines that were done publicly by fellow ET members. We can actually compile, categorize and measure some interesting bits of data. The one that stood out to me over and over and over again was the fact that a large majority of the traders upon failing openly admitted to breaking THEIR own rules, not TST's rules, but THEIRS. That really stood out to me. Again, we don't have to speculate on this, we have the hard data right here on this board. Over and over and over again it was the common theme. Even our resident active TSTer Austin has made this comment time and time again. Now while it's true these traders also broke TST rules (usually violating the max intra-day drawdown) the fact that they couldn't even follow their own self imposed rules tells you a lot about the type of person doing these combines. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not chiding them for being newbie or inexperienced traders. I'm simply stating that these traders are a good case study as to why most traders fail in general whether it be with TST, on a free ninja sim or their own funded account. Again, I'm using real data here not just making stuff up why I think guys are failing. And let me further emphasize that Austin, our fellow futures veteran here on ET has been trading futures for over 10 years! And to top that off, the dude sells mentoring services in the thousands of dollars teaching guys how to trade. Yet even with 10 years under his belt, go back and re-read his comments, he talks about not being able to follow his own strategy or his own rules. This is the point I'm trying to make. Hell, it could the Italian mafia running this combine, it doesn't matter, the main problem here lies with the trader, not silly combine rules. And I have witnessed this first hand at all the trading firms I have worked for. And I stated previously on this thread that the best theory I have here is the fact that all these guys are trading without an edge in a market that really doesn't offer a true edge large enough to compensate for the daily variance in prices. So since these guys have nothing truly to work with, they just throwing everything against the wall hoping something sticks. This is analogous to an option trader who gets fed up with losing so he just starts selling option premium with impunity. He doesn't have a real edge so he chases the most risky strategy but one that offers the appearance of consistency. This is similar to the ES trader who scalps one tick winners with 10 tick stops. It works, a lot. Until a few stop outs start building up. The general rule in this business is, those without an edge will start to heavily rely on high risk trading or high leverage to generate p&l. And then it's just a matter of gambler's ruin to take over.
Yes, I totally agree. I think it's important to review the rules for the "Junior Trader" status, regardless of what combine a trader decides to take or whether or not the trader is asked to take a "live prep" combine. They are listed in the link here: http://help.topsteptrader.com/knowledgebase/articles/287267-junior-trading-plan Under "Additional Rules", it specifically states that you cannot add to a losing position, and you must predetermine how many lots you will trade to start. You must also agree to not add size until a specific P&L is reached for the day. Obviously, these additional rules are NOT part of the sim combine. So the only relevant question one should ask is this: "Can I meet the profit goal as a Junior Trader while adhering to the additional rules such that I can get to Senior Trader status and take a withdrawal?"
I highly doubt traders are viewing TST as simply a training tool. You can get an AMP or MIRUS account with Ninja and trade sim for months at a time with no cost. Sure, TST will enforce certain parameters during the combine which builds discipline. The purpose of getting backed is so that you can eventually trade SIZE without having to put up your own capital. That in my opinion is the value of the opportunity.
Interesting post. The entire business model rests upon the idea that if you pass a combine and the live prep, then you will get a funded account. The rules clearly spell out that not all traders will be asked to perform a live prep, but some will. Your post is vague and doesn't mention the rule you supposedly broke which got you sent back to the combine. I'm actually preparing to do another combine, and from my experience thus far, I don't see how TST is operating in a manner that suggests they have "no interest in backing traders." I guess the only way to find out is to first pass the combine!
Oh I'm sure they are not. But is that the fault of TST? Most traders don't have a clue how they should go about being successful in this business. They are approaching this from the standpoint of how fast can I become profitable and how many millions will I make once I become profitable. Just read some of the threads on this site, "taking $100 to 100 million" or I want to quit my day job as an engineer and trade full time, will it take me 3 months or 6 months to become a great trader". And so on. Again, I'm not trying to hype myself here, I just think I have a unique perspective on this because I have seen both sides of the market. From someone who has been licensed on the professional side to actually managing the risk of traders in my group and spending 100's if not 1000's of hours talking to them. I've said this over and over again on here. Use the combine as a litmus test as to your ability. And I never said one should not take advantage of the free sims, do those too. TST offers a free trial, do that one. Do other free trials as well. When you think you are ready to push yourself some more, do the combine. It's not that hard to get a free rollover. And if you can't. If you can't even trade at the scratch level, then for the love of God, go back to the drawing board and work some more. But once you get to that level where you are a scratch trader and I honestly believe that is the highest most of these guys will ever get to without a hard solid edge, then upon passing the combine fund your own account. By that point you should have the self confidence to trade your own capital. And if you don't? I mean honestly, you shouldn't be doing this. I mean, you can't play football if you are afraid of taking a hit and you can't trade if you are constantly in fear of losing. Trading other people's money is not going to erase that fear. Anyway, these are just my opinions.
The edge with TST combine is that is holds you accountable. You can't reset it like a simulator-- it is as close to real conditions as you can get. PLUS the added bonus of being "discovered" if you have talent. Win win for everyone.
Without counting the added bonus of attentive ET commentators commenting on any observations/problems one could encounter there.