This is why the main focus is to build enough cushion within the 10 days so you don't have "too small of a trading capital" as you begin to scale up. Regarding capital being "obtained in other ways" I don't see any competition that offers terms as favorable to the trader as TST. The "better trader" isn't going to "leave the arrangement" unless the scaling up became prohibitive, since that is the whole point of the live account.
You missed Pekelo's point. If you take longer than the 10 days to meet the goals, then what makes you think you'd build a solid cushion in 10 days, since that is the maximum number of days you have to build the cushion? To determine your estimated cushion, take your average P&L per day of the combine, and multiply it by 10. A continuous combine trader who takes 30 days to make the $9,000 on the 150k combine has an average P&L of $300. Therefore, the estimated cushion in the live account is $3,000 ($300 x 10). If that same trader used your "trade at half risk" example, that number is reduced to $1,500. How many customers at futures brokers will survive more than a month with a $1,500 draw? Your prior example using the 150k made sense: $9k in 10 days in the combine, then trade at half risk, and build $4,500 cushion in the first 10 days in the live account. Then, by your own example, if you scale down risk again to 1 lot in order to build up that cushion while maintaining the ability to take a draw, then your odds go up of improving upon that cushion. It's the size of the cushion coupled with the ability to manage risk while scaling up size that will ultimately determine the longevity of the live account.
Where does disagreeing with the rules get you ScalperJoe? How does it advance you? I prefer to focus on things which are in my sphere of influence. Have you taken a combine?
Of course its preferable to build a nice cushion in days 1 to 10 of funded but if you don't and only manage say $1500 it's hardly game over for a decent trader. You can just proceed on a 1 lot, 20 ticks a day will see you slowly build. Re - competition of companies offering trading capital. Many backers will not openly advertise themselves. The large prop firms have business development people who know all the traders and hook people up. I know people at prop firms who were funded this way, also people who approached hedge funds who were told you need to be making x before you come to us. If you have a verifiable track record funds will consider you.
at least you are talking as though its possible to make money with TST. People are making far too much of a deal about this. Its 19 ticks a day.
The sort of rules TST has in place are the sort of rules that make for a consistently profitable day trader. Day traders who move stops further away, place disaster stops at ridiculous levels, average down losers, fade strong trends, let day trades turn into swing trades turn into investments, etc. can have great runs of profitability and then blow it all rather quickly. Day traders who can adhere to the sort of rules TST has in place stand a far better chance of remaining profitable for the long haul. TST rules are very reasonable for day trading, IMHO, and the framework is a solid test of planning and discipline for wannabees.
Yes, I believe the opportunity is viable for anyone who wants to trade futures in a structured environment. TST posts the stats of several funded traders, so it's obviously possible to make money. Yes, I've taken several combines off an on the past few years, and unfortunately have not yet passed, although I have come very close on two prior attempts (30k and 50k combines). Currently I'm trading a 150k sim account with crude and ES, with up and down days, trying to modify the strategy to hold for bigger wins with multiple lots, instead of actively over trading, which is a bad habit I bring from my experience trading equities at several props. I asked in the prior post how many customers at futures brokers will survive more than a month with a $1,500 draw, for which you did not answer. Although it's true that a "decent trader" can proceed on a 1 lot for 20 ticks a day, however it's LOWER odds without an adequate cushion. We've all heard of the sales pitch of "make $200/day trading 1 lot of ES with my system" blah blah blah. You really don't buy into that nonsense, do you? Ask any rep at AMP, Mirus, IB, TOS, etc. the following question: "What is the PROBABILITY of a trader keeping his/her account profitable (i.e. not blowing up) after one month on a $1,500, one lot day trading account?" Why do you think TST doesn't reveal how many traders who are funded actually STAY funded? It's no different than a retail account, although I'm inclined to accept that the TST funded traders have better stats, given they have built up the discipline that's offered by the combine. Like I've said before, you either have to trade MULTIPLE lots, or let a winner run MORE OFTEN with one lot. Either way, the odds diminish UNLESS you have a decent cushion.
I agree that those who adhere to the rules have better chances, however, that will greatly depend on the cushion a trader has built in the first 10 days. In your opinion, what amount of a draw allowance per lot of ES or CL do you feel is adequate enough to meet that objective?
TST should have a sign: Canadians don't need to apply! In today's edition of Personal Finance, we will take a look at the tax issue: We also mentioned this often overlooked issue with Volente lately, so let's do the math: 1. Toronto Trader trades his own money, makes 100K before taxes. His cap. gain tax rate is 25%, so he takes home 75K to his family. He buys flowers to his wife, maybe a nice ring too. 2. Toronto Trader trades for TST and makes 100K before everything. TST takes its 20% cut so his income before taxes is 80K. He is in the 40% income bracket so after taxes he is left with 48K. No presents, not even flowers for the wife... Let's compare it again for the slower people in the back rows: Everything else being equal, if TT trades for himself he takes home 56% more as a Canadian... YMMV in other countries, but the same math applies to most countries.... The only guy, Crispy in this thread who has been with TST for an extended time (1.5 years) left them a few weeks after TST lowered their cut from 40% to 20% across the board. I found that curious. Now Crispy might have earned the lower rate earlier, but even an automatic low TST cut couldn't make him stay, after he crunched the numbers. It is possible the tax issue has nothing to do with Crispy leaving them, but I am sure he could have used the extra 20-30% income...
Learning to not over trade is key to success. Good luck with future combines, def try and take fewer trades and cut losers tight. forgive me but I am not going to answer every question posed especially a question like this which is meaningless. Most traders fail regardless of account size. of course its lower odds to succeed if you have less of a cushion this is stating the obvious. Please don't accuse me of buying into sales pitches, I am fiercely anti-vendor and contrarian. I am NOT going to ask a rep at a broker anything, their MO is getting new customers and making commissions. Most traders fail and blow up/reload many times that's all you need to know. It's a bit like asking a real estate agent about house prices or for advice on real estate development, it's not something you should be doing. A commission monkey is not going to help you. I have absolutely no idea why they dont reveal that. If you are expecting every TST funded trader to be there 5 years later its not going to happen. TST know that. If a trader stays ther 1 year, makes a chunk of change, TST does well out of it everyone is happy. It's not a marriage dude, its a funding arrangement. False. Personally I trade all in or all out regardless of the position size. Most people tend to scale out of trades, both ways are valid it comes down to expectancy.