Baggerlord, we are getting off the discussion. I appreciate your comments. The reason why I have been so incessant in questioning Patak's 'true' business model is because I know this business is tough and have experienced it firsthand. I don't want new traders to get fooled unnecessarily with more schemes which don't make sense. Failure rate at Patak is 99%, so even if I had done Patak, I don't think it would have helped me become a successful trader. Trying on my own and failing again and again it was hard. But, at least now I am a profitable trader. Anyways, if you take time to pursue my thread, it will show you my own evolution as a trader. It was very hard for sure. Over the last 3 months, my daily Sharpe has been 3.4 (its pretty small period I know). I think I might just do another journal. It was fun the last time, though it didn't end happily. Hopefully, this time it will be better. Fyi, I am a systematic trader.
One more thing Baggerlord. If anyone asks me what are the things that predict ability of a person to become successful trader, I will list following. Patak doesn't help in any of these. So, it really doesn't matter if a trader goes the Patak way or not. Whether he will succeed or not is basically dependent on his resolute character and his number skills. These are what I think make a trader successful: 1) Numerical skills, statistics knowledge, programming ability 2) A good Account size say at least 30k for futures trading 3) Ability to persist, persevere even while facing adversity 4) Ability to do a fair and balanced analysis of his performance 5) Good Research. Monroe Trout said in Market Wizards these are the things that make him successful: (not exactly sure, writing from memory): 1) Lowest commissions among CTAs 2) Best execution among CTAs 3) Superior research Btw, I have not run numbers but I suspect even Monroe Trout didn't have the consistency that Patak requires. And Monroe Trout was the #1 ranked CTA for return/DD. Over a 5 yr period, he averaged 67% return with a MAXDD of 8%.
I don't believe "everyone will miss it" if they simply go through the site and read the FAQ's. If there is still uncertainty after reviewing the site and FAQ's, TST provides a phone number, email, and live Q&A session as well. A simple analysis is as follows: They're charging $150/month to become a member. With an ongoing paid membership, a trader gets to utilize many educational tools (chat room, daily online courses, etc.), and a simulated trading platform, and then pays to join a combine at a reduced rate. If a trader chooses not to become a member, they can simply pay a higher fee to join the combine. So it has perceived value from an EDUCATION standpoint. It does seems genuine to allow a trader who goes negative to come back trading live without making up for any drawdowns. However, loss limits that can be changed at their discretion and statements of "eating" losses based on hearsay are not supported by any facts. The "fine print" usually uncovers the subtle truth. It's simply unrealistic to believe that the equity partners who require a $5,000 or $10,000 "cushion" to "protect against losses" before they will send you a check are going to allow live traders to go deep in the red before sending you back to the combine!
Now all of this makes sense... We have a washed up trader who has blown up account after account and lost 100s more what a combine would cost trying to save the rest of us. Seriously gmst take the combine risk management/discipline is a hard thing to learn, its probably the holy grail of trading and why many traders fail. I might do it myself and I don't even need the funding, but can use improvement on my discipline/tilt issues. 300-400 bucks and gaining a better perspective of risk is a hell lot better then losing 50k isn't?
I read this again and I think I will agree. There is value in what you are saying and till now I have failed to see this value. I ADMIT! and I am serious! So, we agree that Patak can't make its traders successful, Mav himself talked about a 1% success rate. However what a firm like Patak can do is that it can make those little noob traders lose a lot less money than if those guys are going to be left on their own. I think if we can have 100 Patak clones, that will be best for the noobs. So, ET guys start a delaware LLC (will cost 400$ or so), call a clearing firm, get an agreement with them and pass slightly better comms than Patak and start giving ads on Craigslist. I think this business can be started for as little as 5k. The coin will start to come in when noobs will start to sign for combines. Even if you make just 50k in your first year, that is 10x return. Just open a one man shop to start, involve your wife for backoffice stuff, your kids/friends to design the website and once the business grows, hire people. LOL. Every ET trader who is unsuccessful now will become successful. Just become a Patak clone - offer a better product. Win-win situation. ET unsuccessful traders become successful and market competition gets noobs a better deal. LOL. EDIT: Mr. Patak, you may not like the idea of 100 clones, since you will lose market share. But you are already a rich man, and you will always have that first mover advantage. You are really a genius that you could think of such an ingenious operation, I admit. LOL.
The entire discussion is centered around whether or not this business model is a membership churning scheme or a genuine way to become financially backed. It is not about prop firms success rates, and it's not about the whole industry. You're right though, a private firm does not have the obligation to publish a trader's success rates.