I don't know which apex predator you refer to, even if I did, I doubt I could be CERTAIN how that entity was positioned. I am just a regular schmo who's been round the block few times. I get your point, yet it doesn't warrant that markets are set to take out their respective ATHs. This is just an opinion. And opinions are plenty. No disrespect intended London.
I think you nailed it. Don't laugh, but I think the SPY will end up at a high of 245-249. As soon as that happens look for the euphoria to kick in on the pull back, then a lower high and dump. One last chance for the smart Baby Boomers to get out of the market clean. All the people screaming dead cat bounce right now and piling on short at every opportunity are helping fuel this massive short squeeze. I know I will be buying as many two year expiration OTM puts on SPY, QQQ & IWM as I can afford when that happens. I'm not going short in any meaningful way until I see this setup.
I am not laughing the 245-249 could easily happen its around there a 100% monthly measure move would reach, the contrarian view always runs further. When it makes ATH tho it will be a great partial/majority banking point for the pension fund, doesn't matter if you don't catch the top its one hell of a run. If we start making progress above the ATH I will be look for the tell tale daily/weekly exhaustion trend days where you can tell the dumb money has really bought it, that is when you get out and run for the hills. GL.
Put it in reference to the only market that matters to the FED, if they keep pushing equities up, the bond boys have to keep pushing interest rates up, in order to have high bond prices and high equity prices, equities are hit on a temporal basis. Even a 1 year downtrend cycle before consolidation and ramp back up. As you approach the ATH, valuations on most equities will be far higher than previous boom bust cycle. Earnings need to keep up so the 2400-2500 level can be reached. If earnings don't cooperate, than the Apex Predator may choose to slam equities down, to the previous humps on Spooz at 1600. At 1600 a new bull market can start where valuations are within past metrics. The sentiment is that most cash if they think its garbage at present levels will not be pushed into more garbage looking equities at 2400-2500. The only investors are the periodic, 529's and pension fund allocations by money managers. We are looking at 10 year interest rates at 1.9%, while Japan is going more negative. If there is consensus on global equity trends higher, than Japan will try to normalize interest rate policy. The BOJ intimated at the last meeting no more more negative on policy. Everyone will pile into the Yen, most likely bringing the cross down to 80. So pattern has been to bust the yields lower with global equity carnage and than rescue them back over 6-7 year period. I would imagine ten year notes at 1.5%. In order for the 10 year to hit 1.5%, equities at some point or another will need to be hit.
so many dipshits, I doubt you would be like this in person to anyone you meet. But the internet gives you anonymity so your response is such. I've just postulated a model, that fits most everything that has happened within last 15 years. It doesn't matter what I say or you say, what matters is if you can make money off of the direction derivatives head.
Watching this (2026) and 2010 for next week. Nothing planned for trades after getting stopped out. If 2010 breaches that'll be good for the shorts. Will get interesting if this week closes red.
At the Feb lows, Nasdaq seemed to be "signalling" the market...Granted, I've been faked out in a big way by Nasdaq in the past, but it's been lagging noticeably the past several sessions.
a confounding trade is what kills most. When price action is doing the unexpected, you just go with it till it exhausts itself.