Top Ten Reasons Recession Will Last "Forever"

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by ByLoSellHi, Aug 24, 2009.

  1. I learned a long long time ago that the vast majority posts/question here don't deserve a whole lot of my time or thoughtfulness.

    It happens after a couple of years.

     
    #51     Aug 24, 2009
  2. Change.
     
    #52     Aug 24, 2009
  3. I enjoyed your business as usual optimistic global trade is always wonderful view. But I find the Cornucopian view of permanent prosperity to have its faults. I will address your points later today. I am curious as to how you think we will ultimately address the deleveraging and credit contraction issues as well - home foreclosures, personal credit, CRE, and ultimately the shop till you drop permagrowth economic model the world runs on.

    The chart I posted earlier in this thread also shows that each subsequent dollar of debt creation contributes an ever diminishing bump to GDP. Which tells me we have a monetary crisis on our hands as well.
     
    #53     Aug 25, 2009
  4. I'll tell you what. Instead of posting some curve fitting chart...how about you post a linear regression "proving" your point. Charts are worthless. They can be manipulate to appear to be correlated. A linear regression on the other hand is a bit more telling. And don't "cherry pick" the data. Show a true random sample.
     
    #54     Aug 25, 2009
  5. 10. Obama
    9. Obama
    8. Obama
    7. Obama
    6. Obama
    5. Obama
    4. Obama
    3. Obama
    2. Obama
    1. OBAMA
     
    #55     Aug 25, 2009
  6. That's a lot of work... how about this article? I won't take it personally if you shoot holes thru it. I actually hope the writer is wrong.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/135566-jim-welsh-on-the-economy-past-the-point-of-no-return

    Scroll to the middle of the article with the chart: Total Credit Market Debt outstanding/GDP Ratio.. and read thereafter.

    Here it is:

    [​IMG]
     
    #56     Aug 25, 2009
  7. I hear often that "we have the highest productivity and the ability to produce and invent". Yes we have a few Eienstein's around but look at employment (types and pay) of the populace please. And don't think the world isn't going to compete better, that's what globalization does, right?

    Your dollar/ growth/ inflation scenario sounds plausable, but what do we produce best- food. So food prices will go through the roof. In this bad recession we are in they have not gone down (I go to the store).

    No, here is what we are in a perfect position to do: Slap a tarriff on all imports to pay our deficit (think of it as a consumption tax on imports). If we can afford little metal trinkets we'll have to pay more, but we can make our own, and the dollar will go sky high (lower deficit), and we will be able to afford to feed ourselves (higher dollar), and the rest of the world can grow or go to hell or whatever.
     
    #57     Aug 25, 2009