Top Performing ETFs

Discussion in 'ETFs' started by investics, Feb 17, 2009.

  1. <h3>Stop Loss Calculation</h3>

    I use this, works well for me.
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    Developed by J. Welles Wilder and introduced in his book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems (1978), the Average True Range (ATR) indicator measures a security's volatility. As such, the indicator does not provide an indication of price direction or duration, simply the degree of price movement or volatility.

    As with most of his indicators, Wilder designed ATR with commodities and daily prices in mind. In 1978, commodities were frequently more volatile than stocks. They were (and still are) often subject to gaps and limit moves. (A limit move occurs when a commodity opens up or down its maximum allowed move and does not trade again until the next session. The resulting bar or candlestick would simply be a small dash.) In order to accurately reflect the volatility associated with commodities, Wilder sought to account for gaps, limit moves, and small high-low ranges in his calculations. A volatility formula based on only the high-low range would fail to capture the actual volatility created by the gap or limit move.

    Wilder started with a concept called True Range (TR) which is defined as the greatest of the following:

    * The current High less the current Low.
    * The absolute value of the current High less the previous Close.
    * The absolute value of the current Low less the previous Close.

    If the current high-low range is large, chances are it will be used as the True Range. If the current high-low range is small, it is likely that one of the other two methods would be used to calculate the True Range. The last two possibilities usually arise when the previous close is greater than the current high (signaling a potential gap down or limit move) or the previous close is lower than the current low (signaling a potential gap up or limit move). To ensure positive numbers, absolute values were applied to differences.
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    #31     Feb 20, 2009
  2. Investics,

    Lost my ass in SRS today, hope you didn't get in it. Check out the chart on FAZ even better percentage moves than SRS, that is when they were up.
     
    #32     Feb 20, 2009
  3. omegapoint,

    So sorry to hear your loss. No I did not get any <b>SRS</b>.

    I am holding only <b>SKF</b> and a very tiny bit of <b>RFN.</b>

    These 2x, 3x ETFs are so risky and volatile. I think I am in all minds to completely stop trading them, if not for a quick day trade.

    Good Luck!
     
    #33     Feb 20, 2009
  4. Investics,
    Thanks for the detailed information.
     
    #34     Feb 21, 2009
  5. <p><font class="vb"><img src="http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif" border="0" alt=""></font></p>

    Source: dshort.com

    One of the best charts I have seen in a long time giving us a macro perspective. May be we need to sit back and wait.

    .
     
    #35     Feb 21, 2009
  6. <h3>Top Five ETFs - Mon, 23.Feb.2009</h3>

    <b> 1. RFN
    2. SKF
    3. DTO
    4. DGP
    5. TZA</b>
     
    #36     Feb 23, 2009
  7. hi investics - I know I've asked this a few times but I'm still not 100% sure what you are posting here - Are these your picks or are these your call for the top performing ETF by percentage for today? TZA opened down and is now flat/slightly up - are you saying that you think TZA will close up in the top five by percentage gain?
     
    #37     Feb 23, 2009
  8. Winstontj,

    The appraoch is to find the ETFs that are most likely to rise in price.

    So the "Top five ETFs" I post, I mathematically feel have a higher probability of rising in comparison to the the rest of the ETFs.

    I am not a day trader, I expect to swing trade these selections on a 3 to 7 day trading period.

    If you check the recent <a href="http://investics.wordpress.com/etf-performance/">history </a>of this method, it has been working well.

    Have a Great Day!
     
    #38     Feb 24, 2009
  9. <b>TZA</b>

    This one would have been a good trade yesterday, I did point it out (few posts before this one), before market open.

    I did NOT trade it myself. I was away from the computer all day.
     
    #39     Feb 24, 2009
  10. <h3>TNA</h3>
    Got some here today at <b>$16.66</b>.
     
    #40     Feb 24, 2009