This is going to be a difficult post to make. My current largest position is short. But after looking at the numbers at close today, the recovery from Fri was decent. The money flow was inwards. My game plan is to watch the market closely for another day or two and if I see bullish trends continue I am going to go all in cash, YES!....I still do believe the market is over bought to enter here. Cheers!
Investics, I know what you meant when the position is on the wrong side. I've there many times. As the $NYA50R went back up to 80.65 today, it still is a sell (short) according to your strategy. I like to add to your $NYA50R by using the RSI as confirmation. When RSI goes below 50, then I will enter a short position with $NYA50R coming down from 80. With these two signals combined, it probably may indicate the trend is indeed over. The RSI is at 63.02 today, I would rather hold my long position instead of short. I may be late in getting out but at least I would eliminate the zigzag markets. Again, it's just my opinion and your thread is very helpful. Trendy
<b>Market View - 24.Mar.2010</b> <b>NYSE Percent of stocks above the 50 Day MA: 83%</b> Buy Aggressively Buy Cautiously Hold Sell Cautiously <b>Sell Aggressively</b> (the highlighted option is my current sentiment) Yesterday was a decent green day as well. Money flowed in. Volume has not been high for a while now. My short position is almost flat, so I am going to wait it out. I did leave some money on the table, I have no long positions as of now. Cheers!
<b>Market View - 25.Mar.2010</b> <b>NYSE Percent of stocks above the 50 Day MA: 80%</b> Buy Aggressively Buy Cautiously Hold Sell Cautiously <b>Sell Aggressively</b> (the highlighted option is my current sentiment) Small pull back yesterday. Volume was average. The Money flow was outward, but it was weak. My short position in the bear ETF <b>DRV</b> is in the RED....but still holding.
market still going up...wall of worry? or the train is leaving the station? ummm... I am pondering if I can somehow combine the NYSE percent of stocks above 50-day MA with another technical measure to help me determine the "strength" or "degree" of overbought-ness (just coined a new word.) Determining "overbought"/"oversold" market by taking consideration of only the percentage of stocks above 80 or below 20, ignores volume and market participation. Any thoughts...
<b>gk_investor</b> You hit the nail on the head..."combining indicators/tools" 99% of the retail investors and a majority of the professional investors too, spend most of their time looking for the holy grail....book value, float, RSI, golden cross, IBD-100 etc etc etc... THERE is NO such thing.... Let us acknowledge that one indicator is not going to do it. But if we have a collection of indicators which can supplement each other, I can assure you that, your trading results will improve tremendously. Cheers!
<b>Market View - 26.Mar.2010</b> <b>NYSE Percent of stocks above the 50 Day MA: 78%</b> Buy Aggressively Buy Cautiously Hold Sell Cautiously <b>Sell Aggressively</b> (the highlighted option is my current sentiment) The numbers at the end of the day do not do justice to the days action. It was a very volatile day, with solid volume. Money seems to have trickled out. I skipped a few heartbeats when my short position was almost 10% in the red, but it has recovered since then. This might be the pull back I have been waiting for. It takes just a few days for the markets to re balance itself, which is usually very painful. Cheers!