Top Fed Official Warns Jobs Will Be Scarce As 'Paradigm Shift' Slows Hiring

Discussion in 'Economics' started by WallStWhizKid, Feb 22, 2010.

  1. A top Federal Reserve official warned Monday that even as the economy starts to grow again, employers are likely to continue squeezing more productivity out of workers rather than start hiring new ones, thereby prolonging the economic crisis for the millions of unemployed.

    In remarks at the University of San Diego, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said that rather than experiencing a "V-shaped recovery," the economy will continue to be sluggish and won't be operating at its full potential until 2013.

    As reasons, she cited consumer anxiety due to the high unemployment rate; a housing sector that "could weaken again"; "very nervous and exceedingly cost-conscious" businesses; and a commercial real estate market that won't contribute to growth "for some time."

    For workers, though, her prognosis was particularly dire: the labor market will be slow to recover because businesses have learned that they can cut workers yet maintain output.

    "There is an alternative explanation regarding the events of last year, though, that bodes poorly for rapid employment gains going forward," she said in her prepared remarks. "According to this view, last year's large increase in productivity is here to stay. In that case, we won't see a quick drop in unemployment and may be in for a jobless recovery akin to those in the early 1990s and early 2000s. This is closer to my view and broadly consistent with my forecast," she said. She continued:

    According to this perspective, the recession has forced businesses to reexamine just about everything they do with an eye toward restraining costs and boosting efficiency. Strapped by tight credit and plummeting sales, businesses have overhauled the way they manage supply chains, inventory, production practices, and staffing. Stores don't order merchandise unless they think they can sell it right away. Manufacturers and builders don't produce unless they have buyers lined up.

    My business contacts describe this as a paradigm shift and they believe it's permanent. This process of implementing new efficiency gains may have only begun and we may be in store for further efficiency improvements and high productivity growth for some time. If so, the rate of job creation will be frustratingly slow.

    Over the last three quarters worker productivity jumped an average of 6.8 percent, the highest three-quarter average in more than 40 years. Meanwhile, the economy has shed 8.4 million jobs since December 2007. The six-percent drop in payrolls is the largest decline since the end of World War II, Yellen said.
  2. Arnie


    In a nut shell, what that post really describes is an aversion to risk.
  3. I see it as a paradigm shit towards the military industrial complex. Obama can't send troops home or stop a war, there are too many jobs at stake. As long as America has a war to fight we'll have jobs. I'd say roughly 70% of new hire engineering/science jobs are either DoD, government, or government contract and growing at a fast clip.
  4. 41% of all the money spent on worldwide defense, is spent by the US.
  5. This is old news.

    Health Care (as outlined today) and Jobs Bill, if passed will cause more layoffs.

    This is time to make "MONEY" and a tone of it. Make as much as you can and find ways to protect it. Of course, taxes will be paid and there really isn't much one can do about that.

    80% of this country will be poor by the end of this decade if the politicans on both sides continue.

    Name of the game is to "MAKE MONEY" and now!

    If your not...make it this much as you can.

    If you do not have chips stacked, you work for a Public Traded Company, you could be FUCKED by next year.

    once again, I read a lot of "ballers" post on this site. Hopefully its true and most these guys posting on ET are making shit tones of money and have chips stacked.....

    It will be "US" against "Them".... just the way it is.
  6. and this is for all my fellow "Chicago'ans". Guys, I loved trading in chicago during the boom days, living downtown in a loft on 16th street, the lake, the women....but guys...

    GOOD LUCK! I wish you well. Of course there is all ways room down here in Texas for the Chicago crew, Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio...could use guys like you!

    You may be heading down faster than you think, if this passes....
  7. Like it has been said, this has been known for a long time. The only difference is that now the top leaders say it will become a reality, meaning that they are pretty much resigned and don't want to do anything. Much easier for them to just launch a few PR campaigns and "educate" those without jobs that it's simply how the world turns.
  8. It's going to get real ugly around this country. How many states are upside down in their coffers? If businesses don't start doing better soon, the states are just going to sink deeper and deeper into the red. Unemployment benefits are going to have to be backstopped by the Federal government indefinitely.
  9. Alizar


    Yea, they are about the only ones hiring engineers right now. The company I work with does a lot of government work (like nuclear site cleanup). Most of our office has been laid off/furloughed, or sent to another state for a government related project. I'm working on a DOE project now, hoping it goes through (they are saying we are about $25 mill over our $80 mill budget) or I'll probably be furloughed.

    We had a "recruiting" dinner last week for some college students getting ready to graduate, and all I wanted to say was "Good luck, you better just stay in school and get a Masters or PhD."
  10. S2007S


    Jobs will be scarce for a very long time, I'm getting so tired of people yelling that were in the process of economic growth, were so far away its not even funny. Nothing can be done to fix this problem but time. You cannot force jobs on a slowing economy, you cannot spend trillions in hoping things turn around, all the millions of jobs created before this crisis were created on false wealth and asset bubbles. The last couple of decades were false impressions of economic wealth.
    #10     Feb 22, 2010