http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=177873 Before the flame session starts......
Statement day made by the bears. SPX 1100 is solid resistance and with the complacency and overbought readings, the easy trade is the short side for the next couple of weeks. Despite the weak dollar and roaring commodities, we closed down. The stock market has internal divergences as well, small cap underperformance, worsening breadth, etc. http://marketcynic.blogspot.com/
Yup. This is a cycle top as well so candle with resistance is a very high percentage trade. Anything above this high today would violate it of course but it's better using a fixed $$$ stop in this case. Also, we need to hold this top for 2 days. A drastic sell-off is going to leave the FED racing to get this market back up (which i've seen before) but increase the % this is a top. A few more days to see whether they're gonna game it or not. If we're below this high friday, Monday is going to be a shit-storm.
This is my opinion and this is for serious discussion. But we have some weakened fundamentals now and a catalyst for this fall (first in a while). Keep this discussion as technical as possible and friendly too. No garbage posting. If you don't have anything constructive to say don't say it. I encourage opposing opinions as well. I know for 1 we need to break that 106 trendline on the SPY before the real shit-storm begins. So we still have a cautious bias until then. Market will fall a bit easier after that. At this point we're looking for a 4-5 week weakness with more if we break that trendline.