Top 10 Most Vulnerable House Members

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by Pop Sickle, Nov 5, 2009.

  1. 9 out of 10 are democrats.

    Top 10 Most Vulnerable House Members
    By Bob Benenson, Senior Elections Analyst, CQ Staff

    There’s a conundrum in Roll Call’s list of the 10 House Members who appear the most vulnerable to defeat in their 2010 re-election contests.

    Nine of the 10 are Democrats. But that is because their party did so exceptionally well in the 2006 and 2008 elections.

    The Democrats would have built a solid House majority just by picking the “low-hanging fruit” — defeating Republican incumbents or winning GOP open seats in districts that had already been trending Democratic or that swung sharply as public approval of President George W. Bush and Congressional Republicans plunged.

    But to build the big majority that they currently enjoy, the Democrats had to push into some strongly Republican territory. And just as Bush played a big role in the Democratic sweeps of the past two cycles, you can expect that President Barack Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi will play starring roles in TV attack ads next fall targeting vulnerable Democrats.

    Of the nine Democrats on this list, six represent districts that voted for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) over Obama for president in 2008. Freshman Reps. Bobby Bright (D-Ala.) and Walt Minnick (D-Idaho) each represents a district that favored McCain by a margin of 26 points.

    The other three most vulnerable Democrats are from districts that swung to Obama but favored Bush at the top of the GOP ticket in 2004.

    If, as Republicans argue, 2010 will be a more favorable year for their party, several at-risk Democrats will have their tenures cut short. Even if the Democrats regain some momentum, it wouldn’t be surprising if some of these Members get sent packing because history is not on their side: The party in the White House almost always loses seats in the midterm elections.

    Nonetheless, the one Republican on the list, freshman Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao of Louisiana, may be the single-most vulnerable incumbent. Cao’s 2008 victory, in a majority-black Democratic stronghold based in New Orleans, still looks implausible. But few challengers have the benefit of an opponent as damaged as was Cao’s: Then-Rep. William Jefferson, a Democrat, who ran while under indictment on federal corruption charges, which he was convicted of after his defeat.

    Bobby Bright , D-Ala.

    Anh “Joseph” Cao , R-La.

    Steve Driehaus , D-Ohio

    Alan Grayson , D-Fla.

    Mary Jo Kilroy , D-Ohio

    Frank Kratovil, D-Md.

    Betsy Markey , D-Colo.

    Walt Minnick , D-Idaho

    Tom Perriello , D-Va.

    Harry Teague , D-N.M.