If we're talking months like January and February this year with a high VIX and volatility, maybe. That's 100 points in two months or 2.5 points a day net. But unless you are the world's most awesome mean reversion trader, you're going to have one heck of a time replicating that when markets get tight and dry, and if you do your chart study you'll notice that markets tend to be stuck in ranges for long, protracted periods. That is the problem many people have, they don't understand the cyclical nature of market environments and it's not that easy to be good at both trend trading and mean reversion. Something like that can take years of experience (as in 10+).
@Georgii So there are only two types of traders? mean reversion and trend trading? and as a beginner its better to learn trend trading first? What about momentum trading?
In the end you're either going with or against the current trend, that's the idea behind trading if you really think about it. Unless we're talking options writing. If you break it down more specifically: it's breakout, trend continuation, trend reversal, range reversals. The first two are with trend, the second two are counter-trend. That's really trading in a nutshell. I would argue that generally speaking, there seems to be more edge in trending markets than in range bound. Trend indicates inefficiency, ranges indicate efficiency. Personally I have tried to trade trading ranges effectively and it is pretty difficult. Many mean reversion traders scale in and you have to have very good iron discipline to do that effectively. And then it's easy to get badly cut when the market surprises you with a slow, creeping trend.
Day 6: Beginning of day: $41472.74 End of day: $37628.28 P/L: ($3,844.46); -9.27% Hmmm where to begin... the overnight position in DUST turned out to be horrible. Did not expect $ to drop that much overnight and for gold to move up that much overnight... was pretty bummed so tried to force some trades in NFLX which turned out to be a dumb move... was down a lot early in the morning and i asked myself "wtf are you doing?" I wasn't trading, I was gambling. So I took a moment to calm down and decided to trade again. Saw a potential bounce move in TSLA and thanks to that im down "only" 9%. Giving myself 2- stars for today's performance. Was thinking of 1-star but I traded well with TSLA. Good entry/exits and being patient. What to do with DUST.... oh my oh my. Note to self: let's stick with the plan. I remember this feeling that I've forgotten. Takes one day to lose it all.
@wabu27 Talk to us about your backtesting metrics? How large was your sample? and what was your win ratio and drawdown? This is assuming you did backtest at all.
He made more than 200 points in that two months. He averaged more than 6 points per his trading day. Don't be jealous of his talent, but he has gone through a long journey to reach that level.
Just did a calculation and my monthly recurring expenses total $3000. That's 8% from my current balance. Every month, just to have buy something such as food, I need to make more than a 8% return. Anything short of that will be trouble. Negative months will be trouble. I think I just truly realized the seriousness of what I am doing. I am literally standing on the verge of a cliff, trying to balance myself while doing two things simultaneously: working full-time and secretly trading stocks. If I end up with a loss like I did today, that is a seriously blow to my account that could screw my whole life up. This is the biggest and the boldest thing I've ever done in my life of 24 years. I might look back and regret my choice. I'm really not sure if I'm actually sane at the moment. All the logical thinking in the world is telling me not to do it. It's telling me to return my loans and go back into my stable lifestyle. Build little by little, no matter how long it takes. That is what a sane person would do. That is what a "normal" person would do. Yet I think I have it. I think I can pull it off. It just doesn't make any sense at all but I really think I can do it. And I think I'm going to regret it if I indeed had what it took, but did not believe in myself to go through with it. Not trying to be cheesy but the saying "do what your heart tells you.." When you like a girl go for it. When you want to go on an adventure go for it. When you love something so much go for it. People call that courage. I don't think the saying applies in the way I'm going to use it, but yea... there is something that's just telling me I can do it. Tomorrow I'm going to give my 2-week notice. I'm going to trade full-time. All I've practiced, all I've studied... either I perform or I don't. It's a true do or die situation now. Its not a game anymore. It's life itself. Let my 20's truly begin.
How much of the $40k or whatever it is, is a loan? Didn't you say you had like $10-12k or something in cash at the beginning of the journal, why not just use that with futures/options and get all the leverage you need without risking money you don't have? Sounds like you've made your mind up though, so good luck with everything and I hope you kill it. I would of course strongly advocate NOT quitting your job until you are sure you can find an edge or make it work though. Also, maybe figure out how to reduce your monthly expenses. $3k is a decent bit for a single guy unless wherever you live is a high rent area of course. Maybe reconsider your living arrangements so that is less stress in regards to what you need every month.
Wabu I'm all for chasing dreams. I'm all for believing in one's self. Chase them. But! Please be wise. Wisdom does not say quit your job "hoping" to bank 3k per month off a 40k account. 3k will pay your bills. You won't add to your equity with that. So good luck, but you can still learn/grow/mature into an awesome trader....with a job. My two cents. I've been where you are. The job is a blessing. If anything you won't OCD about trading.