Took a 50% hit. Time to see how long it takes to make 100%.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by athlonmank8, Nov 6, 2007.

  1. let half ride. I sold off 1/2 @ +.60.

    Target was reached on friday, but held over the weekend. Not going to close this yet. Might give some back but oh well.
    #31     Nov 12, 2007
  2. Joab


    It sounds like you have a winning method ..... for a trending market condition.

    What are you going to do when the market consolidates or corrects ?

    That's what your missing !!!!!

    You were being fooled by randomness :(
    #32     Nov 12, 2007
  3. huh? What are you talking about? When it consolidates?

    I was SHORT. However, although you were compelety were however right on something. This is more of a trending system. Whipsaws it works poorly in.
    #33     Nov 12, 2007
  4. lol woah...easy there kiddo. Rough day huh? Dont like being wrong on red days?

    Now that you mention it, the other half of my problem was being correct about the market troubles? Right? Get real.

    The difference is that I know I can make it back. Let me clue you in. Mechanical is the only way to go. Trade outside your system and you get burned. Im proof of that.
    #34     Nov 12, 2007
  5. Good to see a fellow asshole on ET.
    #35     Nov 12, 2007
  6. CHDX, INFA setting up for a sell. Stop @ 34. INFA 16.5 short with a 17.2 stop. I might take that one.
    #36     Nov 12, 2007
  7. Update: Didn't do anything after the HAL short until this week.

    Portfolio +8.1% as of the start of this thread.

    HAL swing +7.5%.

    Fri overnight - CROX swing -5%

    Mon overnight - COH swing -3%

    Tonight overnight SEED +2%

    Daytrade yesterday +2.1%

    ~65% profitability (this number isn't nearly as good as I first thought)

    ~Max loss 3.2% max gain 4%

    Today: +4.5%

    ~63% profitability. (still way lower than I had first thought)

    ~Max Loss 1% max gain 3% - This time let a gain run for 2 hours. (AUTH short). Surprisingly worked out great.)

    Comments: The "stop" portion of my system is difficult to handle. Requires patience and a willingness to give back a good chunk of gains. Tough to do.

    Also, im obviously losing money holding overnight. I need to stop that garbage.

    Overall still very happy. I incorporated a "target portion" to the system which allows an exit before the trail is triggered. Keeps my mind a little more open.

    Lastly, the portfolio wont be accumulated anymore. I've changed strategies and am now withdrawing profits after every week of gains. If there's no gains for the week, then I take it out of the basis.

    If i run out of money, then I shouldn't be in this game. So far so good.
    #37     Nov 14, 2007
  8. Joab


    I hope everyone is watching this thread closely because it's a good example of the thought process that is required to develop a winning trading method / edge.

    keep up the good work and remember, that you never stop learning in this business.
    #38     Nov 14, 2007
  9. CHDX short would have ended up well and INFA just treading water. out but still falling.

    Update. Lost the gains on CHDX. Took the short @ 35, covered 36.5 and now 31.7. Not much I can do.

    On the other hand, I think the market bottomed out today. Too early to call, but we'll see. Trend still says down, but has to end somewhere.

    As for the "system". I narrowed it down for everyone.

    Here's the summary....

    First, you must have some sort of stop.

    I start with an initial base stop (fixed).
    As the position switches in my favor it turns into a trailing stop (not numerical however). It's more of a trend-based (but not trend lines).

    -I use moving averages for direction
    -Trend break for entry
    -Trailing stop been covered.

    -Then I use a target system for the trade and get out either based on the trailing or the target.

    Target is situated where the remaining sells or buys will be place (psych points). Sometimes they're fib numbers and sometimes something else. Dont need much detail here.

    The whole idea behind this is that once the trade is profitable, it will cut into the losses. 65% profitable trades will yields x number of losers, x number of ties, and x (majority) number of winners. However the y factor (dollar value) for the losers will be far outweighed by the y factor (dollar value) of the winners as long as the trend is there. If there's no trend, there's no point in being in the trade...aka you get stopped out and the y value for ties will be zero (theoretical). The downside is commissions, which haven't been factored in, but i will neglect them as of now since they're a sunk cost.

    As long as this math works out, it's a winner. The hard part is STICKING TO IT.

    Trading live is difficult. I see what they mean in all the books. Not hard to be profitable, just have to move past the typical human traits. And accept losses as part of the gain.

    If anyone would like more insite into this, i'd be more than happy to indulge.
    #39     Nov 19, 2007
  10. Bottom could be in....futures up 10 a/h.
    #40     Nov 20, 2007