Service businesses haven't really suffered yet. That is why we are at full employment. Who knows if it will spread but if you look at the macro picture it doesn't look good. All the easy credit is dissappearing and the growth from the last 20 years was almost entirely due to easy money.
I'm not in the service business. I sell raw materials to manufacturers and metal fabricators. During recessionary periods we are normally the first to feel the pain. So far, there is no pain whatsoever. I do agree that overall things are not looking good, but hell, business is great.
------------------ Yeah, have to say learned that the hard way on the short side though (more specifically EBAY post bubble)
"Oh, and Japan is/was a totally different animal--definitely an apples and oranges comparison." absolutely correct. japan unlike the United States doesn't have a native born underclass consisting of ten millions of people who don't speak their native language properly.
To be honest, few get affected by a recession.Federal agents don't bust into town and publicly torture a few citizens just to make sure everyone gets the message so that all and sundry do know, without doubt, there really is a recession. If you look at the post-WW2 recessions they don't last that long and the bear markets that go with them tend to be relatively brief. So long as price is jigging around a bit, as it will anyhow, markets will continue to offer good profits to traders and the trading fraternity.
good post by staffpro on first page,thnx for doing all that homework,there is usually a panic to point out a bottom,we had 1/23 and it bounced hard, i think we go to 1250, thats aug 06 low,the start of a 3 step rally,the 87 crash was a 3 step from 1/86 -10/ 87, it went to bottom of 1st step and rallied , not saying we will be ok after that but i do expect a bounce,1380 t0 1250 is 130 points ,so half,65, 50% retrace brings us back to 1315,38% just under 1300,then sell back down to 1160,and that will be the bottom on a 20 year chart that is support,i agree with u day on the oversold indicators, i'm looking for a bounce soon,maybe an early rate cut of .25 and then no more cuts for a while, the bonds sell off and the money moves into cheap equities, guessing is free, see what the mrkt thinks, it always has the last say
Well, Japan is getting an influx of foreigners as well (from Brazil, Korea, etc.), but that's not what I'm talking about. Our banks are far from perfect, but it's nothing like the old-boy network in Japan that loaned to the hilt to their friends even when things were accelerating to the downside. There are a lot of things to respect about Japan (productivity, savings rate, etc.). These things have kept their country relatively stable through all their other financial problems. But their banking problems were on a completely different level. For the U.S., once this credit crunch started, many banks started tightening conditions for even credit worthy borrowers.