Too much Pessimism and too many shorts.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by midlifeguy, Mar 8, 2008.

  1. Ok, first of all no market goes up or down continuously.

    Why ? Precisely due to posts like this here. For every buyer there is a seller and for every seller a buyer, at least in futures, but the idea is valid as this is trading.

    I have attached an NQ chart, see those blue lines ? Those are previous support areas where traders might think we could pop after more downside. How much ? No one knows, but if you are experienced you apply your "elite" money management skills you take what the market gives you.

    So far, every important support level has been crushed, except of course, the last one.

    Notice, I said support level, not resistance. When indexes start doing the opposite, breaking resistances INSTEAD of support then you got something to look forward to.

    For now, all these talks are just speculating nonsense.

    Anek
     
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    #21     Mar 8, 2008
  2. mokwit

    mokwit

    If the posts are nonsense to you then stay off the thread. FYI we don't need you to come in and give us all lessons. If we wanted that we could look up your chapter in Market Wizards, right?.
     
    #22     Mar 8, 2008
  3. You sure you don't ?

    Here's a quote from you

    "Many pros may have sold and be cash n the sidelines"

    You really believe that ?

    You honestly disregarded the possibility that perhaps pros shorted a pop after the markets started creating lower lows and lower highs and are still short ?

    Come on, cash ? Don't make me laugh, cash is for the weak.

    Anek
     
    #23     Mar 8, 2008
  4. dcvtss

    dcvtss

    #24     Mar 8, 2008
  5. mokwit

    mokwit

    Many hedge funds may have reversed from long to short, but I think you will find that a lot of institutions go in part to cash rather than short. Recent Merrill Lynch survey indicates that mutual fund cash levels are at highs not seen for years. Cash levels, not shorts. Hedge funds make up most of the non program volume but other institutions dwarf them in assets under management. SAC is actually tiny comared to some mutual fund companies. Have you ever dealt with institutions or are you just drawing lines on charts in your bedroom between homework assignments? FYI institutions couldn't jump on a move (trade what they see) even if the wanted to. Do you know why?

    Bottom line is we are standing around the water cooler jawing, we are not necessarily going to trade based on what we are discussing here, although it will be a factor in my trading because if you trade what you see with options you are buying when the premium has already blown out, so you have to anticipate. Jumping on sucker spikes is for suckers.
     
    #25     Mar 8, 2008
  6. May I ask your basis for this conclusion?
     
    #26     Mar 8, 2008
  7. I agree.
     
    #27     Mar 8, 2008
  8. Cash is for the weak? I don't think so. Most institutions cannot go short. If you cannot go short cash is KING.

    I cannot go short in my 401K so I am 40% in cash. Cash is also king in a high interest environment.
     
    #28     Mar 8, 2008
  9. mokwit

    mokwit


    sssssshhhh, he doesn't know that.
     
    #29     Mar 8, 2008
  10. bgp

    bgp

    listen, this market isn't a normal recession. we are going into a depression. there are too many dreamers out there thinking they will buy the break and live happily ever after. forget it, this is a serious bear market on the verge of collapse. oh yes lets ask the gov. to come to the rescue or maybe some of you want to kiss the ass of some foreign fund to bail the u.s. out ????

    bgp
     
    #30     Mar 8, 2008