Too much market research

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Joe Ross, Nov 27, 2009.

  1. Do you do an awful lot of research into a market before you attempt to take a trade in it? Do you look at fundamentals and try to glean as much information as you can about the underlying? Do you feel that you are doing a more than adequate job of information seeking, but are still not as much as a breakeven trader? Are you beginning to feel that you are doing something wrong?

    Well, it could be that you are suffering from information overload. It could also be that you are gathering information about the wrong things. People have a tendency to believe that the accuracy of their trading increases with more information. This is one of the illusions of knowledge—that more is somehow better—that more information increases your knowledge about something and improves your decision- making ability. But that is not necessarily true—increased levels of information do not always lead to greater knowledge. There are three reasons for this. First, people tend to interpret new information as confirmation of what they previously believed. You believe what you want to believe—you are biased, even if you are not conscious of the fact. Second, some information doesn't help us at all in making predictions, and can even mislead us. Finally, we often do not have the training, experience, or skills to interpret the information correctly.
    You have to closely examine the kind of information you are looking at and determine its real value to the markets you are trying to trade. I have seen traders keeping elaborate records of everything they are doing as they trade. They keep files full of articles and reference materials which they pore over prior to making a trade. But is all this really necessary? I doubt it. It is much better to trade what you see without having to find justification for every trade through research.
  2. This smells like an advertorial. If you are going to post, then post. If you are going to cross over into your obviously known trading advisory, then pay the bill and become a sponsor.

    You have a good rep, don't take the leap into spamming.
  3. As a trader grows, he naturally handles more and more information.

    Anyone who is just a potential trader, only assesses what he sees to guide him to better understandings of what is possible.

    Platforms are continually improving because the owners have to keep up with trader practices, particularly the expert trader's effectivenss and efficiency.

    What is it like when a trader goes from intermediate to the beginnings of expertise? What are those moments like when a trader gets to that niche of recognizing an exit and an entry in the opposite direction represents an identity.

    How far beyond thinking that markets either trend or consolidate is a trader when he decides to alway stay in the market and always remain on the correct side?

    What does it take for a trader to recognize the brief periods when consecutive trends are overlapping?

    For most expert traders the answers ly with the consideration of using information in support of what they need to observe.

    Usually "certainty" is attainable instantly. But there is one caveat that Joe may want to fold into his vendor program. By his posts, Joe could be suggesting he looks at the same thing all of the time and he may be suggesting to not crowd or cloud it up too much with other stuff.

    As capital grows, a person usually winds up doing all trades as partial fills. Before that, it may be a good idea to carve turns with precision when going from one side of the market to another.

    Well before that a lot of traders are dealing with the percent of RTH's they are in the market compared to sideline time. Look at all the measures Traderzones has introduced for looking at trading effectivenss and efficiency in terms of in market time compared to total market time available.

    Going from one percentage to another with the same profitability, can lead to a major change in the bottom line.

    If a person gets to recognizing an exit is an identity with an entry in the opposite direction; what does this clarity about the moment really imply about having a greater variety of information.

    This identiy applies to two nearly identical moment in the order of events of trading: the retrace and the reversal. Knowing which is which at the precise beginning of each takes more than Joe or Traderzones has to offer. We know that. Both have to add something to their systems to be able to differentiate a retrace from a reversal at the moment each begins.

    As traders acquuire knowledge and skills, thay concurently are tooling up there supply of information. Another thread compares discretion and quanttifying. Adding skills and knowldege does not deal in either. It is an addition of quality in trading.

    Effectivenss and efficieny is in the domain of qualitying the moment.

    Personally, I love the moments of the turns and the relative market's capacity to handle them. Most of RTH's is between turns.

    The farthest you can be from a turn is usually what you are looking at. With all this time on your hands, how do you take advantage of examining what is going on? Do you look repeatedly at the same old as Joe does? Or do you delve into the transition of going from one turn to another in terms of the order of events which MUST occur?

    Lets say you are Greenspoon under Steenbarger's tuteledge using John Boyd's fighter pilot algorithm. you have 400 contracts riding and you do an average of 60 turns a day. Greenspoon averages 10K a day doing this.

    What does Joe suggest? He says relax and don't look too far a field. what is Steenbarger telling Greenspoon from Boyd? He is saying hypothesisize and test your hypothesis. He has Greenspoon pulling less than a tick per contract per tern.

    Now do 20 to 40 trades a day by trading the 5 min ES point to point on the BBT fractal level. There are five general market pace periods a day. Pace changes at bar 18, 30 45, and 66 to divde the day into five parts. What is it like to look inside the point to point price movement? you go to another sourse of info to look. there you see three price moves and four volume moves. what iof you want to look inside each of those price moves? you can and when you steer and focus on the last inside move you get to view the whole time width of the upcoming turn you are going to trade. If you are exceeding the capacity of the market (why not), then you know you have to carve through a series of partial fills. what allows a person to do this is NOT Joe and NOT tradezones.

    More information at the right time is what allows you.

    So think about it. An expert needs a lot of information and he needs to look at the right place at the right time.

    When trends are overlapping is the time a good trader is settling down in a new trade after just cremeing the turn. Volume is declining and price is coming to and moving across the RTL in a reversal, known from its very beginning to not be a retrace. The retrace was two trades back and a dominant trade occurred in between.

    It time to set up your screens foks and its time to start to learn to log so you know where you are in the day.

    Its time for traderzones to look up some new pics to show how smart he is by not recognizing any trades so far when they are called for him.
  4. Shagi


    ANALYSIS PARALYSIS:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:
  5. Some day Jack, you might even learn how to paper trade
  6. What trading advisory might that be?

    I have no trading advisory!
  7. funny, because your email advertisements have hit my more than a couple of times.

    Does the name Andy mean anything to you?

    Unless you are using Joe's name and pretending to be him.
  8. Yes, that's Andy's trading advisory, not mine.
  9. NYCMB


    Hi Jack,

    Could you provide examples of chart for comparing "Reversal" against "Retrace" regarding Price and Volume? I always have problem to differentiate one from another. TIA
  10. Lets roll.

    Bring up your Friday chart and lets run through the first 21 bars so you can see, feel enjoy andset in place how your mind learns to become differentiated.

    I will spread this out so I pass the test of 40 paragraphs per post. I wouldn't want to short change anyone.

    I have a 3:30 the pm so I may have to break it up little.

    Lets do a log that has a few columns on it.
    #10     Nov 29, 2009