Too late to short tech (AAPL), commodities (MON, FCX), rails (CSX)?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by EliteTraderNYC, Oct 2, 2008.

  1. I am speaking of the next month?

    How about emerging markets?

    A bottom or do we keep dropping?
  2. you're too late

    I trade long-term

    May 29-June 6 was a decent entry window for me.

    Market had a cheesy summer rally in the QQQQ's and now, here we are....

    It's safe to say you missed the shorting opportunity in this sector.

    If you believe that more financial armageddon is coming, you'll have bigger concerns than whether you should be short or not.
  3. I was short all those names in june and rode them down for two months, but I can believe how badly theve been pummeled.

    They were more of a bubble than i thought.

    You cant short anything with the vol this high. either buy dips and use VERY good risk management or just sit it out.
  4. Well everyone thought financials had seen their lows in june so who knows. Best thing is to (a) wait for a pop to short. So figure a decent pop is anywhere from 15-20% . Or (b) short it now but only 1/3 position. Market is crazy right now be careful . I believe this market is going lower but there will be some huge rips in the mean time.
  5. Hey, thanks for the note. How did you call the top in these commodities?

  6. you mean in tech- tape reading ....price exhaustion.

    I have no idea how to explain it or systemize it.

    I didn't call a top in any commodities. I think there is a difference between generic selling like deleveraging and specific selling, but its probably too unique to systemize as well.
  7. dsq


    aapl is a momo commodity stock -just like oil or has plenty of room to has been bid up by hedge funds and if they start panicking with this overhyped tech it will get drop to 50 or less.Back in the 90s aapl had a boom bust cycle between 5 and 40 if i remeber correctly.
    AAPL is this most overcrowded tech trade like rimm.Up until this summer aapl had 25 buy recommendations and no sells.That is the classic kiss of death.
    AAPL ipods have saturated the market,their computers and iphones are expensive luxuries in a recession.AAPL has NO new products coming out.And itunes will start facing pressure from other sources.
    Short all rallies.
  8. The trend is your friend.
  9. So glad to be in cash!!! Yes!!

  10. Agyar


    That is some piss-poor analysis. AAPL is nothing like RIMM, and it is nothing like the AAPL of the 90s. It is currently gaining market share in the computer space and iPhones are still kicking butt. There is no fundamental reason in the stock itself that has caused it to get cut in half. The market is pulling it down. The basis of a healthy long term stock price is still there (earnings).
    #10     Oct 9, 2008