Exactly, though of course a number of stocks have had nice upwards moves over the past few weeks. This reminds me of an article that I'm reading for my spring session class - "Bubbles, Human Judgement, and Expert Opinion" by Robert J. Shiller, published in 2002 (his article was partly derived from an earlier article published in 2000). One key point that he suggests is that investors' expectations for future returns is an exponential moving average, with highest weights being given to the most recent returns. For example, if one sees a stock moving up 20% a day over a few days/weeks or whatever, one will be more likely to expect large future returns on the stock. So in other words, the current media buzz about a potential bull market right now is mostly due to the recent upwards moves that we have seen, but I personally feel that the writing is on the wall for a downwards correction during the summer months.
I cant say whether a bull or bear market. However, I will keep playing my stock splits in this slightly bullish-consolidating market for now.
Here is my prediction: NASDAQ will go upto 24-2500 and then it is all over for any upside. What we will see is large swings in either directions with NASD going down to 800 and then 1800 and so on. US$ will be sideways for few quarters and then it is downwards ahoy! Regarding Euro, no comments other than that European economy, technological standards etc. are solidly 10 years behind that of the US. Worst, the population growth is dwindling forcing them to accept terrorists from Turkey, Muslim Africa and middle east. Not much hope with folks having fanatical mindsets. Russia should be careful not to lose eastern regions to Chinese encroachers. EUROPE IS SHRINKING FOLKS! EU IS ON THE REVERSE AS SEEN IN FRANCE AND NETHERLANDS.
Yes but at that time we were at the beginning of a war. Now we are more at the end. And please correct me if I am wrong, but after every war since WWII, we have had inflation and bear markets. Right ?
Surely the way of the market will be determined by the price of crude. I dont care about data and numbers, if crude goes above $65/b and stays there for any real time we could be looking at Dow 5000 Nas 200. Hope I am wrong.