I have just read 'The Stock Trader' by Tony Oz, terrific book by the way. On page 187 Tony says the following "Any time an index closes at the bottom 10% of its day's trading range, there is an 80% chance of making a lower low the next day. If an index closes at the top 10% of its day's trading range, there is an 80% chance it will make a higher high the following day." Tony's first book 'Stock Trading Wizard' arrived this morning and I have only had time for a quick scan through it, but I came across a similar quote to the above, on page140 he says "When a stock closes at the top 10% of its trading range and all the major indexes close at the top 10% of their trading range, there is an 85% chance that the stock will make a higher high the next day." Has anyone checked out these percentage figures themsleves, I do not have the required software or computer skills to do it myself, but the above percentages appear on the high side from my observations. The 'Stock Trading Wizard' was written in I think 1999 so perhaps as we were in a bull market at that time maybe the 85% figure applied then. Nev
NevDavies: I'd be real careful if you're trying to apply that stat to your trading ideology. 1999 and 2001 are worlds apart in the context of the stock market. Of course though, make no mistake about it, Tony Oz is a great!!! His books offer generally VERY good instruction. Regards, BSAM
Hi BSAM, thanks for the reply, no I am not trying to use this in devoping a trading strategy, the reason being I have been eyeballing charts and have not found the percentages given to be anything like as high as stated in the books. I would like someone however who has something like metastock or tradestation to do a couple of quick tests and tell me what the actual percentages really are. Nev
Just did a quick study of the S&P futures contract from 1982 to today: Probability of tomorrow's high being greater than today's close: 88.9% Probability of tomorrow's low being less than today's close: 86.5% If index closes in upper 10% of day's range, probability of tomorrow's high being greater than today's close: 89.4% My interpretation: Edge provided by knowledge of these statistical properties: 0%