Tomorrow's Prices & Comments

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Dave at NextDay, Apr 27, 2010.

  1. A few comments on the attached chart: There are red arrows to the left of each of the 5 point adjustments that fell below the low target for today of 1204.89 cash S&P and the arrow pointing to the close which fell 20 points below the low target.

    I stated at the beginning of the day that the premarket & opening range condition warranted my normal 5 pt adjustment below my low target, and I mentioned that, depending on the internal strength numbers during the day, I can make additional 5 pt adjustments. Those levels are determined by stats I've built over time regarding price action which exceeds my extreme target levels, and the typical behavior of the market relative to those price adjustments. I assess those about every six months. They don't change very frequently.

    That's what enabled me to give you a heads up at 12:25 ET to look for a bounce. My hope was that the 1289.89 price level was going to hold. Hopefully you were able to make some $$ from that level on the initial bounce.

    The fact that it fell ANOTHER 5 points, for a total of 20 below the low target is something that only occurred during the '07-'08 drop. It doesn't concern me for now, but I will be watching to see if my price forecasts begin to widen. The valuation calcs consider daily average volatilities, consequently the price targets automatically adjust accordingly. During average market activity, the difference between the extreme high and extreme low is normally about 40 points. During the crash, that widened to 75, and a couple days it went over 100. That, obviously, is nuts. The point is that we should still be able to mailntain accuracy on our price targets.

    If the pic doesn't attach on this thread, I'll attempt attaching again immediately.
  2. yes, that last leg down was very unusual something that has not happened in since <march09

    EUR broke down and a new stage has set in.. whats the target for this? 25? 15?
  3. Johno


    Don't hold anything back!:D


  4. Johno


    Let me give you a hint. Markets flattening out, PIIGS bond spreads widening, Bond downgrades, major lenders not stepping up to the plate and any number of other signs leading to a market dump, meanwhile the share index charts were happily bopping along, no problem here. Your post refers to hope this, hoped that yet supposedly predicts tomorrows outcomes, how bizzare!


  5. I've been in this business over 30 years; just started posting with ET and was posting in the Journal forum. This is a business of decent approximations and from there it's all about good money management if you want to survive. In any event, I do run some numbers on FX. The attached chart is a combination of a proprietary valuation standard deviation algorithm of mine, combined with approximate daily price projections. I'll explain in a one-on-one chat or phone conversation, if you're interested and want to take the time.