Selling the ES again. Anything above 60 should put oneself in a good position. 64.25 would be a great place to sell but not sure it will get there. Too early last time but willing to accept the risk again.
You know that trend traders will rush in to buy this dip. So you have to protect yourself at all times. There is a possibility that we are going to see strong, maybe violent moves in the coming weeks. My trading philosophy has changed over time. I am no longer interested small profit factors, only interested in the big payouts. That is done by capturing long enduring trends and catching the big sell offs or rallies that occur in short periods of times. In my data when the regression lines of the slope and polynomial are parallel to each other or their is a narrow width between them there is a high probability that a strong trend or sharp fast rally or sell off will occur. Over time smart trading and protecting yourself at all times is necessary to be successful in this business.
I got it completely wrong on how this would play out but the data as I described was correct. Here is the 2 day chart showing strong, possibly violent moves.
This is a forecast of IBM weekly data for 2017. This forecast was made in December of 2016. I may have posted these charts some time ago, not sure. Anyway my only interest in trading is capturing big moves with cheap options. Note how the charts indicate when the big moves were going to happen in IBM. After the March move occurred a friend of mine and I said well see you this fall for another big move in IBM. Also enclosed is the ES intraday chart for 10/25 and 10/26. Notice what happened yesterday (10/25) between the opening and 1230.
Here is a type of chart that has been mentioned before, when the slope and 6th degree (order) polynomial are parallel or wrapped tightly around each other. This is the TXN, Texas Instrument chart from August 1st until today 10/31.
ES Chart from 10/30 1830 until 11/1 0700. Once again on this particular chart a narrow width between the slope and 6th order polynomial occurs.
A top in after today? We'll see what follows as it's possible we could see some profit taking and selling coming in.