Crude would have to break 41.36 or the 3x2 before you could consider a short. It's just too strong otherwise and I know better.
I missed the long in Crude and not going to consider a short in Crude anymore. However I will consider shorting the ES between 1230/1300
In the same position as I was yesterday in the ES. They will try to bring this market back up but not sure they will get the job done but there is plenty of time left. Target is 56.50 with a break even stop in now.
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It appears that a significant trend is about to embrace Crude Oil and will last for 6 months to the downside.
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This ES chart (and one other) tells me we are going to trend upward on Friday. A double, triple, or wipe out on the SPY's 227 calls on expiration day? Crude Oil looks like a choppy downward move for 6 months. Already 50,000 + open interest on 9.5 USO July Puts? All of these charts are prepared in advance for any move and they enable one to place themselves in a good position.
Are you out of your mind? Choppy downward move over next six months? Look at the past 6 months of it. See what it did. 6 months ago what did it do, where is it now and what did it do in the meanwhile?
Looks like today is the day of reckoning for crude oil. 52 being the line in the sand support for the bulls. I attached the price structure I see being significant - a two day sell off could lead us below 50. If crude breaks, that was a hell of a call interdim. I would change my view if we close above 53.50 today.