This current trending down move has ran out of gas. You will see another trending move between 1330/1400 until 1500, probably not of the same magnitude as this one. Trend traders will keep selling this current move until you prove them wrong, but it's about over now.
Emanuel Derman on Uncertainty “….In physics you have absolute values. If you want to shoot a rocket to the moon, you can use Newton's laws and the gravitational constant. In finance you can't make absolute predictions. You try to figure out the value of something by relating it to the value of something more simple…” Thought I would toss that in...Smile. Market jumped 2 points, trend traders immediately sold it but will they succeed in keeping it down? Going to be harder for them to do so. Back to Derman's comments, keeping this simple has always been an objective. I can tell and come pretty close to determining when 2 polynomials are going in the same direction or not, and at about what data point in time they begin or end going in the same direction or not.
Going up until August 2nd or 5th now. Had to penetrate 7/19's low and they didn't get it done with that announcement.
I have everything mapped out now on the ES Daily through 9/30. When the the polynomials line up is when you will see one direction, and we have some great moves coming.
Looks like they are going to challenge the low from yesterday. Nothing lines up today with the polynomials, they oppose each other for the entire day. So today I will be on the sidelines.
After examining multiple charts that are created each and every day, I would say 1030/1100 will be a crucial turn until 1400.
Whenever I see the polynomials opposing each other in the charts I posted it tells me that a good trend is not likely to develop. My bias is still to the upside. I did finally buy it at 57.00 during the 1230 retrace and if they get through the 5 Minute Bollinger Band Moving Average I might hit my target of 5 points. I already have a break even stop at 57.00, so they have to break the 1330 30 minute low of 57.25 to take me out. You can easily see why 1230 was a retrace in the charts.
I took 2 points and covered. It's wrestling the 5Min upper Bollinger Band and 30 Minute Moving Average Bollinger Band