Here is what I am recognizing about the charts I posted. Instead of them telling you the trend they are showing you all of the price swings keying off of the peaks and valleys of those charts. Even with Crude's sell off this morning, look at how it would reverse off of the counter move at the time of the peak or valley to continue the trend down. It did that until 0930. The ES reversed off 0830 and has continued down
I predicted yesterday would be up and obviously I was wrong. However the charts I posted yesterday and today will tell you when turning point Highs and Lows will occur. No need for the Red Line. Here is a very simple way to look at these charts. A complete cycle High to Low or Low to High occurs on these charts from Peak to Peak or Valley to Valley. Go back and look at yesterdays charts and follow today and you will see when the significant turns will occur.
The reason why it looked like the perfect buy was because the Peak to Peak and Valley to Valley Highs to Lows were completed.
ES was tricky, chart wise it was hard to say which way it would go but one thing you did know was 0830 was the pivot for the move. A break above it after the open was a long or a breakdown below it was a sell. This move goes up until 1330, with a correction around 1030 or so
They sold the 1030 ES Peak and broke the 0830 Low this market could go down now until 1400, Peak to Peak, instead of the Valley to Valley. Crude corrected at 1100 as expected and should resume it's move up until 1230. The dynamic changed on the ES. Always protect yourself at all times in these markets.
The complexities are great in these markets but the charts I posted the past few days simplify them. The market will go either Peak to Peak or Valley to Valley, and if anything gets out of line be suspect, because it may signal a change in how the market will trade. In the ES I thought 0830 should have been a sell but they took off to the races, but I became suspect again when 1030 didn't really correct like 1100 did in Crude. In Crude you essentially had 2 great buys, one at 0900 and 1100 with your risks just a matter of a few ticks.
If the ES breaks above 64.25 ( the Low of the 30 Minute 1030 price bar) then the short position is in jeopardy and they could continue up until 1330, otherwise it will stay down until 1400. You would place a break even stop on that 2nd Crude trade.