I always use the 3 x 2 displaced moving average to determine the position of the market. 0900 was above the 3 x 2 on Crude so it's reversal signal would be a sell and likewise for the ES at 0930 today, both were above their 3 x 2 displaced moving average. Keeps it simple.
You can't define or put any kind of reasoning to some of those swings when they release the Crude Oil reports. I trade 10 lots when I trade and there is no way am I going to foolishly put myself in such jeopardy. Now after the first 5 minute bar is completed you can begin to realize the position of the market, where it may be going and then jump on board but not until then.
ES 1300 appears to be a good long and possible 5 point trade. 1300 was mentioned in a prior post as a turning post. I fudged and gamed it, got long at 42.75. If it hits 48/48.25 I'm gone. I would expect it to go up until 1430/1500. If it takes out 41.25 I'm gone. 1500 should be your next reversal.
With 1500 being a Q signal which are more about completing symmetry, they give the appearance now of wanting to complete symmetry back down. I'll stay with the original position and not change anything. But it won't take much for them to take me out. i could just take a break even but we still have time for this to work out but it could work out against me. Good trade management decisions have to be made all the time.
Covered for a break even...a nice rally like that taken out by 1 bar down was not a good sign. I withstood the first test but it made no sense to stay in it the second time I was being challenged. It still has time work out but this trade is not for me. Crude 1400 Low. Done for the day
An aggressive trader would sell the ES here looking for new lows on the day. Q 1500 looks like it will be down.
Don't tell me now they are going to make that run up after all. I'm not in it so I don't care. They don't make it easy and you do have to make decisions involving uncertainty.
Well we have a Q 1500 High and they are reacting to the Q 1500 30 Minute Red Bar to take it higher but I don't think it will last and they will bring it back down. They did the same on Crude except 1400 was a 30 Minute Green Bar up and they took it down and made a new low but brought it back up to the 1530 time frame.
ES_7_14_16 and Crude 7_14_16. Included is how to determine reversal signals. It's pretty simple with just a couple of rules. We've got signals occurring very soon! Q and Sym data has their own characteristics but that is not important for you to know at this point in time
Crude was tricky because your signal bar 0830 to go short was an 30 Minute inside price bar. So they sell 0830 off 2 5 minute bars, then run it up until the opening at 0900 to establish a High to take care of the sideways aspects and then down it goes. You should be able to tell on the charts where the bottom will be in this Crude move.