I just don't see the total fear out there yet. Actually the last time I can remember staining my pants to buy was the july-oct period in '02, that was as close to total fear since '98. Not sure how many of you were around back then, but the day the actually closed the market early due to point drop. There were people on my desk that were ready to poop all over themselves. What happened the next day? Gap down open big time, and straight up from there. Thats what this market needs, still way too people looking to buy, not enough blood out there.....yet
I'm thinking in terms of a cut before the market opens. If a trader wanted to bet on this the best play is buying TSX interlisteds right now since they've already discounted the U.S. futures. TSX has been falling one day more than anybody else. I'm not saying this is THE play, just that it's a good play if you're going to bet on a cut before the opening. As for myself, I think a rate cut pre-open is a long shot so I wouldn't play it that way. Just a thought.
It may seem like this statement is correct but the stock market is a good barometer of what's going on in the economy. Alan Greenspan and the feds was in a state of panic during the crash of 1987 and they had to do something about it even when they thought the economy was doing well. the Fed pays attention to the market and I'm leaning towards a surprise cut.
I dont see panic with the dow off 15% from its highs, I see panic if it was down 25-40%. I think if the market trends down all day into the closing, opens down hard again on wednesday and starts to trade off its low it could mark a short term bottom. However with earnings due out anything goes.