I think it's hard to make big money without having an "opinion". I almost always have an opinion about the market. Right now I'm bearish....I've been bearish since late August. Here's what that means to me. I'm actively looking for opportunities to get short. I'm looking for failures on the upside. Take today for example....we took the days highs out...and then failed. What followed was a very nice down move. Or yesterday....a nice rally that was reversed entirely in about 1 hour...from high to low. Take the gap failure on September 11. Or the gap failure on Tuesday. Anyone can take advantage of these situations of course....but if you have an "opinion" you're waiting for them, you're all over them, you step up to the plate...you give them TIME to develop. I form my opinions by looking at the daily bar chart on the SP cash index, and by looking at a considerable number of individual stocks in the evening. I go with the trend. I don't look for oversold or overbought....the biggest moves in history have ALL occured AFTER the market got overbought or oversold. The debacle in 1987 occurred AFTER we were oversold. There's no limit to how long a trend lasts, or how overbought or oversold a market can get. What you do is recognize the trend...and then trade in that direction by capitalizing on EVERY move that is contra trend. You WAIT for the failures....because the market ALWAYS fails against the trend. It takes having an opinion though. Now I will trade against the trend at times. But I'm VERY demanding, and I get out quick...because contra trend moves end quick. I don't expect much. OldTrader
The market will open at 9:30 am. The greater trend is currently down. However, it could very well not do a whole lot in either direction and mostly just chop, chop, chop. Most likely if there is any significant move, it will be in the direction that "THE BOYZ" decide to push it. My job is to watch for that and follow the boyz..... ....until they decide to stop. Whether or not the BOYZ decide to "Rock" remains to be seen. The market will close at 4 pm. Have a nice weekend, all.
aphexcoil- how can you have 656 posts here and never have traded for real? if you think you know what you are doing, get some balls, get some cash together and come step in the ring with the real traders, you will see that paper trading is a whole different ballgame- but the only way you will get better is with experience TRADING LIVE, not making a million posts on ET and never trading. good luck though.....
Oh, COME ON, dude!!! Will you give everyone a break??? You keep reminding me of all those morons on Fear Factor who pound themselves on the chest in the interviews about how freaking cool they are and how there are gonna win it all etc only to freaking make a mockery of themselves in the first round. And what do they do then? Do they become embarrassed and humbled? F#ck no! They just walk off saying "Oh well, I tried, I was only competing with myself and I think I still won." They are so full of themselves they didn't even realize they screwed up!!! Every once in a while there is a player there who comes in humbly, beats the sh#t out of everyone and leaves humbly. THOSE are people who tend to be successful. People who are like ducks, smooth and calm when you look at them, but paddling vigorously underneath. See what I'm driving at? APPROACH IT HUMBLY, DO IT, SUCCEED AT IT FIRST AND ONLY THEN (ALTHOUGH EVEN THEN IT'S BEST TO REMAIN HUMBLE AND MODEST) CAN YOU FREAKING POUND YOURSELF ON THE CHEST AND PAT YOURSELF ON THE BACK. "You will not give up? You will not fail, bla bla bla?" GREAT FOR YOU! Albeit, I'm not sure whether that's perseverence or stubborness (you might have psyched yourself about how great you are gonna be trading that you won't even recognize if it's not your element, if need be). Just keep the selfmotivational speeches to yourself (e.g. a silect prayer or smth of that nature might be more appropriate). You like to get a good discussion going? Hmmm. Have you noticed what your discussions turn into? I haven't followed many of them since it ain't time well spent, but I remember at least two of them administratively closed in the last week. That should tell you smth. Some people hate you here and you can not change that? First of all, did you ever think it might have been your fault??? Secondly, yes, you can chage that. For example by reducing the volume of your posts, starting to trade, hopefully getting some good results and then trying to get some respect. Although something tell me if you do, by luck or not, get a few positive days at the beginning, the ET will be avalanched with "Didn't I tell you I was a freaking wizard go-getter" kind of posts... On the other hand, if you start losing, you'll probably post your voluminous whinings here...
Yeah, right. And as far as running naked down Wall St., the Aphid can't sacrifice the time for that because he needs to keep posting enough drivel to get him onto the "Most Active Members" list. The Aphid has around 260 posts to go, and all since 8/19. Like a moderator once chatised me, it's quantity, not quality.
Well Aphuk, you said if you were wrong you'd dance naked on Wall Street. Think about it, one little tick against you and you're stuck in jail for indecent exposure (a metaphor for your posts, perhaps?). As someone pointed out, how many positions would you want to carry over a weekend in the face of pending war and bad earnings? If the market closes down by a tick it'll be your chance to show us what a man (?) you are. Anyway thanks. For the first time in a while I actually care what direction the market moves
During College and University there was always someone who would constantly ask questions during each lecture and half the time they would raise their hands to answer their own questions. Some people love to hear themselves speak. These blokes were often fairly bright but by the end of the term you'd be scheming to avoid them in the following years class. Alas, you'd end up with a new incarnation of the latter. Every now and then they may have something enlightening to add but by the end of the year, no matter what they say or do is usually preceded by a moan from the rest of the class. Alphie, you sound like a nice fella. It seems that you've reached the "moan threshold" with many of us. It's not too late to save yourself (the ignore button doesn't eliminate others from responding to your tedious banter). Think twice before you post, read and take in what others are offering, and attempt to limit your posts to when you have something to offer. And for god sakes, until you gain some credibility, please do not start any more threads.
I pray with all my heart that Alphie is right! The sight of him running naked during lunch time would put me off hotdogs for life.
aphex- I've got a game plan for you. You have all these ideas, some might say "all calls , no balls", but you don't have a trading account. Well, I've got a way you can make some money. Everytime you make a post here put $15.00 in a jar. $15.00 x 20.37 posts per day x 365 = $111,525.75 Good luck. uptik2000